Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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048 FXUS64 KOUN 172328 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 628 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 625 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 - Marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday across northwest into western Oklahoma. - Exceptionally hot/humid conditions on Thursday and Friday. - A cold front potentially arrives on Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Latest water vapor imagery depicts the center of a broad upper trough over northwest Utah, and the associated dynamic ascent will allow for thunderstorm development along the dryline over eastern New Mexico this afternoon. The greatest lift remains well north of our CWA tonight as the trough advances towards the northern plains, and precipitation is expected to weaken/dissipate over the panhandles before reaching Oklahoma. The presence of low-level WAA does bring at least low chances for tonight into tomorrow morning, with POPs peaking at 30-35% between 12 AM and dawn on Wednesday. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny and hot with highs in the mid- to upper- 90s. Southerly winds will be a bit breezier, with sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph over western Oklahoma. Though mid-level support will be lacking, there is a low chance of thunderstorms developing along the dryline/trough axis tomorrow afternoon and evening. Activity should be diurnal in nature and dissipate not long after sunset, given how far removed our location is from the upper trough. The potential hazards with this activity will be cloud-to-ground lightning, large hail up to the size of quarters, and damaging wind gusts. Thompson && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 306 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Heat ramps up on Thursday and Friday as our area becomes more influenced by the mid-level ridge and veered low-level flow. High temperatures will increase to 10-15 degrees above average, with readings nearing record territory on Thursday at Lawton and SPS. With a moist boundary layer in place, heat indices are forecast to rise into the triple digits for some areas on Thursday and Friday. Another strong trough heads our way from southern California end of the week and into next weekend. This cyclone becomes stacked upon ejecting from the Rockies, and the associated cold front is prog`d to enter Oklahoma on Sunday. Will see increasing shower/storm chances Friday evening and over the weekend. While there are indications of a cool down (possibly into the 80s early next week), there remains considerable uncertainty with the track of the upper trough and frontal timing. Thompson && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Primarily VFR forecast will continue. Chances for TSRA impacts this evening at KWWR too low to include in forecast, but will keep PROB30 there after 09Z with high based SHRA/-TSRA possible, and then again tomorrow afternoon. Elsewhere, will keep VFR but cannot rule out period of MVFR/VFR stratcu after 12-14Z near and east of I-35 terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 68 93 72 96 / 0 10 0 10 Hobart OK 70 97 73 100 / 10 10 0 10 Wichita Falls TX 70 98 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 67 96 70 99 / 30 20 10 10 Ponca City OK 67 93 71 99 / 0 10 10 20 Durant OK 67 93 71 97 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...11