995
FXUS64 KOUN 170245
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
945 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 824 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

    - Low chance for a few showers/storms west this
      afternoon/evening

    - Above average temperatures much of the week

    - Rain chances Tuesday night/Wednesday north and west, higher
      rain chances areawide starting Friday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

There is a low (10-15%) chance of a few showers and storms later
this afternoon and evening in parts of western OK and western north
TX. If these storms do occur, gusty winds will be possible. All this
being said, most locations across the fa are expected to remain dry
again tonight and during the day on Tuesday.

Temperatures tonight are expected to drop into the mid and upper
60s. Highs on Tuesday are expected to range from the mid 80s to mid
90s across the area with the mid 80s in eastern parts of the fa. The
temperatures Tuesday afternoon are expected to be as much as 5 to 8
degrees above average.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Models show an upper low lifting NE into the northern Plains Tuesday
into Wednesday. The associated trough will affect NW portions of the
fa bringing a chance for showers and storms to mainly parts of
western and northern OK Tuesday night and Wednesday. After this
system passes by, a mid/upper level ridge will affect the region
before the next upper low/trough begins to approach and move across
the central and southern Plains this weekend. Models have slowed
this system down from previous runs. This system is expected to
bring higher and more widespread chances for showers and storms to
the fa this weekend.

As for temperatures, even warmer temperatures are expected Wednesday
into at least Friday. With the previously mention upper ridge over
the region during this time, highs in the 90s to around 100 are
expected with lows in the 70s. These temperatures are as much as 10
to 15 degrees above average for this time of year. Temperatures are
expected to come back down closer to normal over the weekend with
the potential for rain/cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 824 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected until 172400 except around and just
after sunrise at KDUA and KSWO where MVFR ceilings are expected.
Winds will remain southeast or east and moderately gusty in
western Oklahoma during the day Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  88  67  92 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         66  93  69  97 /  10   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  67  94  70  98 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           65  93  67  96 /  20   0  30  20
Ponca City OK     64  89  67  92 /   0   0   0  20
Durant OK         66  88  68  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...09