703
FXUS64 KOUN 140236
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
936 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 923 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

    - Above average temperatures through much of the next week.

    - Slight rain chances Saturday through Monday.

    - Increasing rain chances next week beginning Tuesday, mainly
      across western/northern Oklahoma.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Warm but fairly quiet weather is in place across the area this
afternoon as the remnants of Francine continue to drift slowly
eastward across Arkansas. Shortwave ridging will continue to build
over the area tonight into tomorrow as this system moves away, with
highs on Saturday expected to climb at least a few degrees higher
than today`s values. Guidance has backed off slightly with
temperatures tomorrow compared to the past several forecasts, but
it will still be quite warm with temperatures near 100 degrees
across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas, with low to mid
90s for central and eastern parts of the area.

A couple of models show a few showers developing tonight into
tomorrow morning across central/eastern Oklahoma on the eastern
periphery of the low-level jet, but the majority of model guidance
shows insufficient moisture in this layer to kick off much in the
way of measurable precipitation and have left out mention in the
forecast for now. Another area to watch will be across the
Texas panhandle tomorrow afternoon where some of the CAMs show
showers and storms developing within hot, deeply mixed boundary
layer. The vast majority of this activity appears to remain to
our west tomorrow afternoon, but cannot completely rule out a
gusty shower or storm making it into our far western counties
(~10% chance).

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

By the end of the weekend into early next week, a developing western
US trough will induce cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies, which
will help draw moisture northwestward onto the high plains and lead
to the development of a dryline to our west. This is where shower
and thunderstorm activity will be focused for much of next week
while the trough makes little progress to the east. This will
likely keep rain chances confined to western/northern Oklahoma for
much of this period. Later next week, some models suggest the
trough may begin to make a bit more progress eastward, which could
send a cold front our way and bring rain chances to a broader
portion of the area, but agreement on if or when this occurs
remains poor. With strengthening southerly flow and increased
moisture in place, expect above normal temperatures to continue
for much of next week as well, with highs in the 90s and lows in
the mid 60s to low 70s (5-10 degrees above normal for this time of
year).

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 923 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected until 150600. Winds will generally
remain under 12 knots from the east through south except
moderately gusty during the day Saturday over western Oklahoma.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  66  91  68  91 /  10  10  10  10
Hobart OK         69  99  68  98 /   0  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  71 100  71 100 /   0   0  10  10
Gage OK           63  96  63  97 /  20  10  10  10
Ponca City OK     63  91  65  90 /  10  10  10  10
Durant OK         66  93  68  93 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...09