Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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728 FXUS64 KOUN 262236 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 536 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 We`ll have a dry quiet weather pattern through the short term becoming active on Monday night. A Pacific cold front stalled across western Oklahoma is expected to start pushing across the rest of our area as the upper trough digs through. High surface pressure builds in with clear skies tonight as northerly winds go light and variable while drier air will result in a less humid and cooler night. Our upper flow shifts northwest on Monday as a ridge builds over the Western U.S. which could introduce some wetter weather starting in the long term. It will still be hot on Monday under sunny skies with highs in the 90s areawide although much less humid as southeast winds gradually increase. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 321 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Southeast winds will also bring a return of low-level gulf moisture & potential convective instability by late Monday across northern Texas and eventually through much of Oklahoma on Tuesday. The increasing moisture combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will result in strong to extreme surface based instability over northern Texas and adjacent far southwest Oklahoma by late Monday. Diurnal heating should weaken the cap while a strengthening low-level jet after sundown may be sufficient to break the cap resulting in convective initiation late Monday evening into the overnight hours. The strongly (mostly in our CWA) unstable and sheared environment may be sufficient for isolated severe storms producing large hail and damaging wind gusts in the risked area of our southwestern CWA for Monday night. The increasing moisture transport on Tuesday will be reforming a dryline that should linger lee of the Colorado/New Mexico Rockies through the long term keeping our area in a moist unstable environment. Isentropic fields still showing ascent from warm advection starting Tuesday while at least the NAM expels the first of several mid-level shortwaves that will be coming through next week. As a result of the warm advection with a possible shortwave, Tuesday will be our first day with widespread rain/storm POPs and this trend will continue into the weekend. Northwest flow aloft will persist through Thursday as a weak upper ridge gradually builds in. Models are consistent with MCS activity tracking down the Central/Southern High Plains each evening through overnight hours starting Tuesday through Thursday as a series of shortwaves are expelled downstream from the ridge. Much of this nighttime MCS activity will be elevated although cannot rule out some of this convection becoming severe at times. As southeast winds make a return on Monday, increasing southeast low-level jet flow at 850 mb and a strong west-northwest upper jet will increase the deep-layer shear late Tuesday with up to moderate MUCAPE values (2000 J/kg) could result in some strong to severe elevated convection with Tuesday nights MCS. Although weaker in some areas, shear may be stronger in other areas for the next two nights and combined with low-end moderate elevated instability could not rule out MCS convection becoming strong to severe for the remaining two nights in some areas. The aforementioned cold front which came through in the short term period is expected to linger and stall out at times across central and southern Texas through much of this week, but may lift back into our area on Friday as a warm front becoming another forcing mechanism for rain/storms. We`ll start see temperatures cooling back to more seasonably average in the long term due to increasing cloud cover and rain. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 534 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 VFR conditions this TAF period. Winds will decrease this evening and gradually shift towards the E and SE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 62 90 64 81 / 0 0 20 40 Hobart OK 61 93 65 85 / 0 0 20 50 Wichita Falls TX 64 93 67 86 / 0 0 20 50 Gage OK 55 92 60 84 / 0 0 20 40 Ponca City OK 59 87 61 82 / 0 10 10 20 Durant OK 65 92 66 85 / 0 0 10 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....68 AVIATION...25