Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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215 FXUS64 KOUN 201913 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 213 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Much quieter conditions are in place today as shortwave ridging ahead of our next trough is expected to limit thunderstorm development this afternoon. This trough will eject into the central plains Tuesday morning and continue to lift northeastward from there through the day. This will place much of our area under at least weak subsidence on the backside of the wave by mid to late afternoon, although height rises look minimal as the region remains within a broader scale longwave trough to the west. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, some of the models hint at early to mid afternoon convective development as capping erodes along the dryline and the trailing edge of lift with the wave moves by. This appears to be a very low probability (<20%) and activity would be fairly isolated. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would be the main concern during the afternoon as low-level winds veer, limiting the tornado potential early on. Ware && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Later Tuesday afternoon into the evening, attention will turn to a cold front that will sink slowly southward through Tuesday night. This will provide a focus for convective development, which is initially expected to occur across northeast into north- central Oklahoma, with chances then spreading southward overnight into central Oklahoma. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards, with a very low tornado risk. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will also be a concern with the potential for training of storms along the slow moving boundary. Showers and storms will likely continue into Wednesday morning, with the best chances expected to be across central and southeast portions of the area as the front continues its slow progress southward. The front is expected to stall during the day Wednesday, with continued development of thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front, with a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. The front is then expected to retreat northward and/or dissipate over the area on Thursday with pressure falls to the west inducing the return of southerly winds. This will allow moisture to surge back northward during the day, with additional chances for severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. The area will remain under modest southwest flow aloft from Friday through the weekend, and with an oscillating dryline and plenty of instability, can`t rule out at least isolated thunderstorm chances each day. Potential exists for greater thunderstorm coverage if we can get a more consolidated shortwave to move out over the area, but timing these waves is difficult at this range. Ware && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 110 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 VFR conditions are expected apart from early morning stratus at KDUA. Gusty south winds will continue with LLWS likely at most TAF sites Tuesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 74 92 65 76 / 0 10 30 40 Hobart OK 73 95 62 81 / 0 0 10 20 Wichita Falls TX 75 94 73 85 / 0 20 10 40 Gage OK 65 91 54 80 / 0 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 72 93 60 75 / 0 10 40 30 Durant OK 71 88 73 87 / 0 20 10 60 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...09