Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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062 FXUS64 KOUN 161646 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 A complicated and very-high-uncertainty forecast is expected over the next 24 hours. The bottom line: the overall risk for severe weather/flooding after daybreak looks to be a little bit lower than it did earlier. "Lower" risk does not mean zero risk, so interests should remain aware of the forecast, but hopefully we won`t have too much to deal with. As of the time of this writing (late Wednesday evening/early Friday morning), we are in a relative lull between rounds of storms. Some lingering convection is noted across north central Oklahoma, while regional radar shows the next round getting underway across West Texas. Real-time HRRR analysis shows a reservoir of about 1,500 J/kg of elevated CAPE largely rooted above 700 mb, but most of it is in a long, "skinny" CAPE profile. The potential for damaging winds will exist, as well as the risk for severe hail. With time, this threat may transition to hydro closer to the Red River. And with that... we may not see a whole lot of redevelopment this afternoon. Recent CAM guidance has indicated a potential warm-sector- sweeping MCS this morning across central Texas, and the boundary will certainly be accelerated further by that occurrence. The likeliest spot for storm redevelopment this afternoon may actually end up being northern Oklahoma further from the MCS`s subsidence and where temperatures may be cooler aloft. Little in the way of severe threat is expected. The greatest severe threat will be from morning through early afternoon in western north Texas as the MCS/redevelopment attempts to sneak back into the area, but this seems unlikely. We will probably see some lingering showers overnight with a cutoff low hanging out over the upper Red River Valley. Otherwise, today and tonight will remain on the cool and cloudy side of things. Meister && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 The cutoff low will remain overhead during the day on Friday, but will get sheared out over the course of the day. Low precipitation chances exist but no impacts are expected. Otherwise, prepare for another day with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and another night with lows near 60. The pattern finally changes a bit over the weekend, as ridging builds in on Saturday. Highs will soar into the upper 80s to low 90s, and with the amount of rain we`ve seen in recent weeks expect this to be a steamy heat. Some midlevel flow returns on Sunday, but the jet looks to be displaced to our north across Kansas. Therefore, temperatures should remain on the warmer end. Sufficient flow and moisture may exist for storm chances on Sunday (EPS ensemble probabilities of precip are in the 30-40 percent range out west). The better chance will probably be across northern Oklahoma on Monday. Beyond that, there is a signal for the jet to come back across our area and intersect with some instability through the middle of the week, but predictability is too low at this range to speculate on the nature of any chances for active weather. Meister && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024 VFR conditions will become MVFR and IFR later tonight into the overnight hours. Winds overall will remain weak through the TAF period. There is a low chance for showers and storms to redevelop across the area this afternoon and evening, but confidence in storms affecting any TAF site is low at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 61 76 61 87 / 50 40 10 0 Hobart OK 59 79 59 89 / 50 30 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 62 78 62 89 / 60 30 10 0 Gage OK 54 81 57 91 / 20 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 60 78 59 87 / 40 30 0 0 Durant OK 63 80 62 88 / 70 40 20 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...13