449
FXUS64 KOUN 151042
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
542 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 537 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

    - Low rain chances this morning north, and again this evening
      west.

    - Above average temperatures much of this week

    - Rain chances mid-week and higher rain chances late this
      week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Have had some cumulus development from Kansas into north central
Oklahoma this morning, but the axis has shifted east over the last
few hours toward eastern Kansas and eastern Oklahoma. The
convective-allowing models are not as aggressive this morning with
convection, but it is still worth including some low POPs in north
central Oklahoma for this morning.

This afternoon and evening, an anticyclone in the 750/700 mb level
over Texas shifts slowly northeast, but this allows increasing
moisture near and below 700 mb to move west and then north into
western Oklahoma and the panhandles. A number of the models
suggest some convective development late this afternoon or this
evening across the west as this moisture increases, although the
QPF signal looks rather aggressive without significant forcing.
Explicit POPs from MOS or NBM are not terribly high. It seems
like enough potential for convection to at least mention isolated
showers/thunderstorms, but at the moment it seems like coverage
would be rather low and will keep POPs below 20 percent.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The upper ridge builds in the southern Plains early this week and
sets the stage for warm temperatures this week. However a longwave
trough is forecast to develop in the western United States and the
upper ridge flattens somewhat this week as this trough ejects into
the northern Rockies and northern Plains. Although the main part
of this system will remain well to the north, some residual
vorticity advection with the weakening southern part of the trough
brushes northwest Oklahoma on Tuesday night/Wednesday bringing
some potential for showers and storms, mainly in the west and
north. Another developing longwave trough this week then moves
more toward the central Plains late in the week bringing more
widespread shower and storm chances Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Remnant mid-level cloud cover from the evening storms continues to
shrink in extent across western Oklahoma. In its wake, expect most
areas to be mostly clear this afternoon, evening, and into the
overnight. Winds will hold steady out of the southeast, with the
greatest chances to reach/exceed 10 knots occurring in
western/northwest OK.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  65  87  65 /  10  10   0   0
Hobart OK         96  67  94  67 /  10  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  97  68  94  68 /  10  10   0   0
Gage OK           96  64  93  66 /  10  10  10  10
Ponca City OK     90  64  89  65 /  20  10   0   0
Durant OK         91  65  90  67 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...04