708
FXUS64 KOUN 271732
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Showers and thunderstorms continue this morning near the 100th
meridian. Confidence is low on the evolution of this convection
given it has the appearance of an mesoscale convective vortex
(MCV) that is nearly stationary in the Texas panhandle. Given this
evolution, southwest/west-central Oklahoma into western north
Texas may have some showers and storms around at least through
this morning (at the very least some cloud debris).

Otherwise, generally hot conditions will continue across the area
this afternoon. Areas across the eastern half of the area will be
less hot given a slight southwest shift of the low-level thermal
ridge. As a result, the Heat Advisory is confined across southwest
Oklahoma, far south central/southeast Oklahoma, and western north
Texas. There is a chance parts of far southwest Oklahoma and
western north Texas will reach the Excessive Heat Warning
criteria; however, given the uncertainty with the MCV and
potential cloud debris in the area, opted not to upgrade at this
time.

Late this afternoon into the evening, thunderstorms are expected
to develop across southwest Kansas, southward into the Oklahoma
and perhaps Texas panhandles as a subtle wave (most evident at 700
mb) provides synoptic-scale ascent in an uncapped atmosphere.
These storms would have a chance to advance east-southeastward
into northwest and west-central Oklahoma with a threat for
damaging wind gusts and hail. With the nose of the low-level jet
farther north, storms would be more likely to maintain their
intensity across Kansas with a gradual weakening trend expected
in Oklahoma.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Friday: The low-level thermal ridge will shift back to the east,
resulting in hotter weather across the area. Much, if not all of
the area will likely need a Heat Advisory. Some locations may even
reach Excessive Heat Warning criteria. Thunderstorms will once
again be possible across northwest into northern Oklahoma during
the late afternoon and evening/overnight hours as that area will
be on the northern periphery of the mid-level ridge.

Saturday-Sunday: A mid-level trough will move across the Great
Lakes region with an attendant cold front moving southward across
the Midwest. The cold front could be a backdoor cold front where
it will move into Oklahoma from the northeast. The front will
bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms with the highest
chance across northern Oklahoma late Saturday into Sunday morning.
The amount of convection will likely modulate how far south the
cold front advances and the magnitude of the cool air in its wake
(i.e., a convectively-reinforced cold front). Currently, the most
likely scenario remains highs in the upper 80s to low 90s across
northern Oklahoma and upper 90s and low 100s deg F in southwest
Oklahoma/western north Texas.

Monday-Wednesday: Temperatures will likely rise as the mid-level
ridge shifts toward the southeast U.S. with the low-level thermal
ridge advecting to the northeast on its western periphery.
Probabilistic guidance indicates a >50% chance across the entire
area of reaching 100 deg F (air temperature) by Tuesday.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

There is a low probability (20 to 30%) of thunderstorms later this
afternoon and into the evening over a portion of northwest and
northern Oklahoma. The greatest threat of severe thunderstorms is
north of our forecast area. However, there is the potential for strong
to damaging wind gusts and large hail with storms that develop in
the aforementioned areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77 101  80  99 /  10   0   0  20
Hobart OK         77 104  81 102 /  20   0   0  20
Wichita Falls TX  79 104  81 102 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           76 105  74  98 /  30   0  20  20
Ponca City OK     76 101  78  98 /  20   0  20  30
Durant OK         74  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ021>023-027-
     033>039-044>046-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...01