319
FXUS63 KPAH 181654
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1154 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and warming trend are forecast through the
  rest of the week and the first half of the weekend.

- Dry relative humidity levels will lead to slightly elevated
  fire weather concerns through Thursday.

- A weak cold front will bring a slight chance of showers Sunday
  into Monday, along with slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Some patchy ground fog has been observed this morning across the
portions of the Quad State; otherwise, fairly quiet weather
conditions are in place with temperatures in the upper 50s and low
60s. Sky conditions are mostly clear across much of the area;
however, some stratus are drifting into Hopkins to McLean down to
Todd County.

A dry surface ridge will linger across the Quad State area through
much of the week. At the same time, an upper-level ridge axis will
shift from the Plains eastward across the entire Quad State region.
This will keep very quiet weather in place with dry conditions
lingering through much of the week. The main concern will be lower
afternoon relative humidity values with deeper afternoon mixing.
This will lead to relative humidity values dropping into the 25-35%
range through Thursday afternoon. Winds will remain fairly light,
but the very dry air coupled with above normal temperatures may lead
to an increase in grass fires/brush fires. The main concern for this
will be locations that did not receive much rainfall over the past
week.

The next chance of precipitation doesn`t show up in the forecast
until Sunday or Monday as a weak cold front approaches the area.
Overall moisture is set to increase; however, the lack of overall
forcing doesn`t justify much more than an isolated chance of showers
and storms. Definitely nothing that looks like a drought buster
through this entire forecast issuance.

Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s through the weekend
before cooling off slightly into early next week. In fact increased
cloud cover and some precipitation may end up keeping temperatures
in the upper 70s to low 80s for Monday and Tuesday of next
week. Overnight lows are expected to be in the upper 50s to mid
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1150 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Light northeast winds today become calm tonight. Time heights
show some high clouds moving across the area this evening and
overnight, before clearing by early morning. Once again may
have some patchy fog to contend with, especially at the fog
prone terminals like KCGI. The more widespread fog likely should
stay south of our border in Tennessee.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...SP