Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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214 FXUS63 KPAH 241826 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 126 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening into the overnight. Stronger storms will also be capable of heavy rain, which may cause localized flooding. - Numerous thunderstorms are expected Sunday-Sunday night. The best chance of more widespread severe storms is Sunday evening, when all severe weather modes are possible. Heavy rain and localized flooding will also be a potential hazard. - Drier conditions with closer to normal temperatures will be the rule for much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Scattered convection today-tonight will pack heavy rainfall capable of causing some localized flooding, esp if they can repeat over the same areas. There`s about 20-30 kts of steering flow so most of the morning rain, while heavy, moved enough to preclude broader scale issues, given hourly RR up to 1.5". The severe risk is moreso tied to an incoming front into an environment that may still have 2000+ J/KG of CAPE as it nears closer to midnight, when bulk shear will have increased 5-10 kts from now. As a result, damaging wind/hail from stronger cells cannot be ruled out. While later afternoon/early evening convection looks more pulse oriented, the incoming front could offer a more linear convective translation overnight. This will include the potential for training echoes/heavy rain causing localized flood issues. After a relative pause Saturday, when the chance of storms is not zero but the chance of severe is minimal...all eyes will turn to Sunday. An approaching 80+ kt upper level jet will see its left front entrance region nearing within a difluent height pattern offering good updraft growth enhancement potential, as 700-500 mb modeled lapse rates have spiked upwards to 8C/KM, quite robust. We see bulk shear nearly double to 40-50 kts from now to the end of Sunday. As a result, all modes severe are expected with the primary system approach and passage Sunday evening-overnight. Earlier, we may get caught up in the warm sector convective growth as the shear and instability parameters grow, but latest modeling suggests this will be mainly to our north, where ongoing activity from late morning on thru the afternoon is possible. We cannot rule out this time frame for strong or even severe storms, but the better dynamical inputs come together with the primary system as aforementioned, from late day into the overnight. Heavy rains capable of localized flooding will also be possible Sunday-Sunday night. While the low level features push the storms on thru Sunday night, the upper trof lags with passage so showers/isolated pops linger into Monday. After that, we look pretty dry and seasonal for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Active early afternoon convection offers restrictions to MVFR CIGS/VSBYS or potential thereof. After a relative lull thereafter with mostly Visual Flight Rules, pops pick up again tonight with CIGS/VSBYS again in restricted flight categories. A front`s passage late tonight will result in predominant MVFR CIGS and some pop may linger into early tmrw before bases scatter and all clears to VFR again. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$