Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
862 FXUS63 KPAH 311120 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 620 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances begin spreading into SEMO later today and the rest of the area tonight into the weekend as a more unsettled pattern emerges heading into the new week. - One more day today of seasonally cooler temperatures and dew points will subsequently transition to a more summer-like air mass thereafter. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 60 degree dew points over central AR work into SEMO this morning, and spread east across the remainder of the FA thru tonight. This occurs in advance of our next storm system, a low pressure wave that opens itself up as it tracks into/across our region Saturday. By then, mid to some upper 60s dew points are entrenched, and it`ll lead to some healthy storms during peak heating with locally heavy rainfall potential. 1 to 2 inch storm average rainfall can be expected with this wave, which yields a MRGNL-SLGT risk on the ERO. That said, we`ll have one more pleasant weather day today with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and a mostly dry day before the pops start creeping upward. Dew points largely remain in the 50s east of the MS thru the entirety of the day. A relative lull in pops occurs in the immediate wake of the aforementioned wave`s eastward departure. That`s short-lived, as we transition to a pattern more favorable for unsettled weather. Another wave on Monday offers such, offering a glancing blow as it opens up on its track into/across the TN Valley. Meanwhile, a more robust low pressure storm system tracks to the Great Lakes by mid week. It`ll drag a cold front into and across the Quad State, and offer our next best chance of rain/storms. By then we are in a more summer-like air mass, with dew points around 70 and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Best dynamics still look to stay largely to the north, but a diurnal flare with the front moving in/thru means stronger storms with their requisite potpourri of offerings, including locally heavy rains, remains possible. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 High pressure will steadily shift eastward today, allowing moisture to increase across much of the area. High clouds will gradually thicken and lower this afternoon into tonight as the next chance of showers and a few thunderstorms arrive. The showers will become more widespread overnight into Saturday with MVFR ceilings expected. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$