691
FXUS63 KPAH 310600
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
100 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances begin spreading into SEMO later today and the
  rest of the area tonight into the weekend as a more unsettled
  pattern emerges heading into the new week.

- One more day today of seasonally cooler temperatures and dew
  points will subsequently transition to a more summer-like air
  mass thereafter.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

60 degree dew points over central AR work into SEMO this
morning, and spread east across the remainder of the FA thru
tonight. This occurs in advance of our next storm system, a low
pressure wave that opens itself up as it tracks into/across our
region Saturday. By then, mid to some upper 60s dew points are
entrenched, and it`ll lead to some healthy storms during peak
heating with locally heavy rainfall potential. 1 to 2 inch
storm average rainfall can be expected with this wave, which
yields a MRGNL-SLGT risk on the ERO. That said, we`ll have one
more pleasant weather day today with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s and a mostly dry day before the pops start creeping
upward. Dew points largely remain in the 50s east of the MS thru
the entirety of the day.

A relative lull in pops occurs in the immediate wake of the
aforementioned wave`s eastward departure. That`s short-lived, as
we transition to a pattern more favorable for unsettled weather.
Another wave on Monday offers such, offering a glancing blow as
it opens up on its track into/across the TN Valley. Meanwhile, a
more robust low pressure storm system tracks to the Great Lakes
by mid week. It`ll drag a cold front into and across the Quad
State, and offer our next best chance of rain/storms. By then we
are in a more summer-like air mass, with dew points around 70
and highs in the mid to upper 80s. Best dynamics still look to
stay largely to the north, but a diurnal flare with the front
moving in/thru means stronger storms with their requisite
potpourri of offerings, including locally heavy rains, remains
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Surface high pressure shifts east today while ridging aloft
centers over the terminals thru the first half of the day,
before it too slides off to the east. The subsequent veering
profile starts to bring some moisture in on the backside return
feed from the departing highs, which results in increasing cloud
coverage over the latter half of the forecast. Translated rain
chances move into SEMO by the end of the day, and spread
eastward across the remaining terminals overnight. Clouds lower
and thicken as this occurs, with some restrictions coming into
play by and esp during the planning phase of the forecast as
well as the soon beyond.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$