Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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985 FXUS63 KPAH 300700 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 200 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions, cooler temperatures, and lower relative humidity continue into Friday. - A more unsettled pattern returns this weekend into next week with daily rain chances along with a warmer and more humid airmass. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 One good thing to come from the recent, fierce weather has been this comfortably cooler airmass that is now in place. It looks to last thru the work week`s end, with dew points in the 50s and highs in the upper 70s to around 80 both today and tomorrow. After Friday, we get on the back side of the ridge as low pressure approaches from the west. Return flow southerlies will drive dew points back into the 60s by this weekend, as rain chances return within a more unsettled upper flow pattern. The low moves practically overhead Saturday, so that`ll be our best pop day, with the NBM now offering categorical pops and there are no arguments here. That wave opens up and flattens out upon its track into the Ohio Valley, and after its departure we lull our pops for about 24-36 hours before the next wave offers another pops spike. This pattern repeats thru the remainder of the package, with perhaps the next best rain chances (after Saturday`s) offered next Tuesday-Wednesday. That`s when a more robust and tightly wound low pressure storm system tracks across the Great Lakes, and drags a cold front into/across the PAH FA. Best dynamics with it appear to remain to our north. Rainfall projections over the weekend have spiked upwards to about an inch, maybe an inch and a half in the Ozarks. This translates to a MRGNL-SLGT risk on the ERO. The pattern shift to more unsettled also brings more summer-like air with highs returning to the mid and upper 80s and dew points to the upper 60s to around 70. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Surface high pressure centered over the eastern part of the Commonwealth on the backside of a departing upper trof will keep our flow cool and dry out of the northeast to east thru the forecast package. Time/height cross sections do reveal 20-30 mb of condensation pressure deficit in the cloud bearing layer, suggesting similar to yesterday diurnal cu flare in the 5-7K FT AGL range supportive of SCT-BKN bases potential during peak heating. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$