Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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107 FXUS63 KPAH 271846 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY Issued by National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 146 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated weak convection possible until sunset across our southern service area. - Mainly dry and seasonable conditions Tuesday through Thursday. - Late week through next weekend chances for showers and storms return to the region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Rest of this afternoon...can`t rule out isolated weak convection across the southern service area where surface heating has contributed to a weakening cap with more moderate cumulus development noted within an axis of better low level moisture (surface dew points mid 60s to around 70) in closer proximity to a weak cool front/ wind shift. Any activity and diurnal cumulus should dissipate with sunset. Attention then shifts upstream where a shortwave was dropping southward across portions of Minnesota and northern Iowa. This was producing widely scattered convection as far south as northern portions of Missouri. As this tracks southeastward tonight, there is low potential for a stray shower for northern parts of the service area by mid to late evening. However, the main forcing looks to pass well to our north, and coupled with the loss of daytime heating leads to very low confidence for any mentionable PoPs at this time. Thereafter, the region looks to remain in cyclonic flow on the western flank of a broad eastern CONUS trough through mid-week. This will foster mainly dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. The models suggest a weak transitory bout of mid level ridging will build in late week and keep much of the region dry. However, heading into next weekend the ridge breaks down and will give way to zonal flow. This will open the region to periodic shortwaves, and while timing/location is difficult at this range due to the low amplitude nature of these waves, it does appear we`ll see increasing chances for showers and storms during this period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 A brief MVFR ceiling will be possible at the start of the TAF period, before continued mixing promotes scattering/lifting of the stratocu deck and a return of widespread VFR conditions for the rest of the period. Some of the CAM guidance hints at isolated convection this afternoon, but this potential would appear to be favored mainly southeast of KOWB-KPAH-KCGI terminals ahead of a surface cold front where dew points are still in the upper 60s to around 70 at midday. Winds will be from a westerly direction throughout, predominantly NW with gusts at times to around 15 kts this afternoon and again by Tuesday PM, while predominantly light from the WSW tonight. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WFO DVN AVIATION...WFO DVN