107
FXUS63 KPAH 271846
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
Issued by National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
146 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated weak convection possible until sunset across our
  southern service area.

- Mainly dry and seasonable conditions Tuesday through Thursday.

- Late week through next weekend chances for showers and storms
  return to the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Rest of this afternoon...can`t rule out isolated weak convection
across the southern service area where surface heating has
contributed to a weakening cap with more moderate cumulus
development noted within an axis of better low level moisture
(surface dew points mid 60s to around 70) in closer proximity to a
weak cool front/ wind shift. Any activity and diurnal cumulus should
dissipate with sunset. Attention then shifts upstream where a
shortwave was dropping southward across portions of Minnesota and
northern Iowa. This was producing widely scattered convection as far
south as northern portions of Missouri. As this tracks southeastward
tonight, there is low potential for a stray shower for northern
parts of the service area by mid to late evening. However, the main
forcing looks to pass well to our north, and coupled with the loss
of daytime heating leads to very low confidence for any mentionable
PoPs at this time.

Thereafter, the region looks to remain in cyclonic flow on the
western flank of a broad eastern CONUS trough through mid-week.
This will foster mainly dry conditions and seasonable temperatures.

The models suggest a weak transitory bout of mid level ridging
will build in late week and keep much of the region dry.
However, heading into next weekend the ridge breaks down and will
give way to zonal flow. This will open the region to periodic
shortwaves, and while timing/location is difficult at this range due
to the low amplitude nature of these waves, it does appear we`ll
see increasing chances for showers and storms during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

A brief MVFR ceiling will be possible at the start of the TAF
period, before continued mixing promotes scattering/lifting of
the stratocu deck and a return of widespread VFR conditions for
the rest of the period. Some of the CAM guidance hints at
isolated convection this afternoon, but this potential would
appear to be favored mainly southeast of KOWB-KPAH-KCGI
terminals ahead of a surface cold front where dew points are
still in the upper 60s to around 70 at midday.

Winds will be from a westerly direction throughout, predominantly
NW with gusts at times to around 15 kts this afternoon and
again by Tuesday PM, while predominantly light from the WSW
tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WFO DVN
AVIATION...WFO DVN