713
FXUS63 KPAH 271709
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
Issued by National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1209 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...Updated for 18z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and pleasant weather is expected through at least
  Thursday.

- Chances of thunderstorms return to the forecast Friday through
  next Monday. No severe weather or heavy rainfall is expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

A upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will keep the Quad
State under cyclonic northwest flow aloft through Thursday.
Impulses riding through the flow may try to spit out some light
showers or sprinkles from time to time, but measurable rainfall
is not anticipated.

A skinny upper ridge will build over the region Thursday night
into Friday. The 00Z guidance still cannot agree on how long it
will hold up over the area. It could break down Friday night
into Saturday or over the second half of next weekend. Once the
ridge breaks down, a weak zonal flow aloft will develop with
impulses bringing daily chances of showers and storms to the
Quad State. There are no signs of heavy rainfall or severe
weather through this period.

Temperatures will be at or below normal through the week, with
the coolest air expected Wednesday into Thursday. Highs then
will be in the 70s with lows in the 50s. A modest warming trend
to near or slightly above normal levels is expected through the
weekend and into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

A brief MVFR ceiling will be possible at the start of the TAF
period, before continued mixing promotes scattering/lifting of
the stratocu deck and a return of widespread VFR conditions for
the rest of the period. Some of the CAM guidance hints at
isolated convection this afternoon, but this potential would
appear to be favored mainly southeast of KOWB-KPAH-KCGI
terminals ahead of a surface cold front where dew points are
still in the upper 60s to around 70 at midday.

Winds will be from a westerly direction throughout, predominantly
NW with gusts at times to around 15 kts this afternoon and
again by Tuesday PM, while predominantly light from the WSW
tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...WFO DVN