987
FXUS63 KPAH 032355
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
655 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to remain in place
  through through mid week, resulting in on and off chances of
  showers and storms through Wednesday.

- A few storms this afternoon could become strong capable of
  producing very heavy downpours, gusty winds and small hail.
  Localized flooding will also be possible.

- High temperatures are expected to trend warmer, reaching the
  mid to upper 80s today through Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Weak upper level flow will remain across the region for the
first half of this week. A few disturbances will move through
which should favor scattered showers and thunderstorms today
through Wednesday before a cold front swings through the area.
Drier weather is expected late this week into the weekend.

This afternoon, a MCS was noted across southeast Oklahoma and
moving in a general SE motion, along the thickness gradient.
Moisture advection along a weak boundary across portions of
SEMO this afternoon is driving showers and thunderstorms. The
environment is unstable with mixed layer CAPE around 2000 J/kg.
While instability is strong, deep layer shear will be limited
to only around 20 knots at best. This should keep things more
pulse in nature. Heavy rains and isolated flooding seem to be
the main hazard, although a few instances of gusty winds and
small hail could accompany the stronger cells.

An upper level disturbance swings through on Tuesday which
kicks off additional convection. There are some questions around
the coverage of convection though. Slightly stronger low level
flow may help to increase shear upwards of 20-30 knots, yet
instability may be slightly lower. Again, think the greater
threat will be localized heavy rain/flash flooding. A cold front
swings through on Wednesday bringing with it another round of
showers and storms. The absence of stronger flow aloft should
limit wind shear, although there may be sufficient instability
for a few strong storms. Again, the main hazards will be heavy
rain/flash flooding. Temperatures this week will be warm, in the
mid to upper 80`s.

Surface ridging builds in from the northwest Thursday with a
northwest wind ushering a drier airmass. Aloft, flow orients more
northwesterly favoring cooler temperatures through the weekend.
Surface high pressure across the region will promote drier weather
as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

An unsettled pattern influenced by the passage of weak upper
level disturbances will keep the potential for scattered showers
in the forecast through Tuesday, with scattered thunderstorms
also possible mainly in the heat of the afternoon. Once such
disturbance may touch off a few showers for the KCGI/KPAH
terminals around daybreak Tuesday. Otherwise, the best shower
and thunderstorm coverage looks mostly likely during the
afternoon hours on Tuesday. Mainly VFR conditions are forecast,
but a layer of MVFR stratus appears likely across much of
southeast Missouri and perhaps into southwest Illinois and far
western Kentucky Tuesday morning, impacting mainly KCGI/KPAH.
Light southerly winds will prevail.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RJP
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...RJP