298
FXUS63 KPAH 281911
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
211 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly below normal temperatures, dry conditions, and low
  humidity will be the main story through Friday.

- A somewhat unsettled pattern returns this weekend into early
  next week with daily rain chances along with a more humid
  summer-like airmass.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

The upper level pattern features a longwave trough over the Great
Lakes and ridging across the Rocky Mountains. This places our area
in northwest flow. The trough will slowly churn eastward towards the
East Coast through Friday and the ridge will become centered over us
by late Thursday into Friday. Meanwhile, weak vort energy will
translate east across the Plains on Friday and into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley Friday Night into Saturday. This feature will
provide our next focus for precipitation. Once this passes, there
may be additional weak energy that passes through our region Sunday
into early next week.

Ensemble guidance seems to be in general agreement that the highest
chance for precip this weekend will be Friday night into Saturday.
However, with the zonal flow in place, any weak ripples passing
through may ignite additional showers and storms Sunday into early
next week. It does appear we become increasingly more humid
(dewpoints back into the upper 60s to low 70s) along with higher
instability by early next week. If enough shear is realized with any
wave passing through, some strong to severe storm potential can`t be
ruled out. The CSU MLP depicts a rather broad region of the central
CONUS for potential strong storms both Monday and Tuesday. Whether
this stays largely out of our cwa or not is far too early to
speculate at this juncture.

Temperatures will be slightly below normal through Friday with highs
primarily in the mid 70s to around 80 and lows falling into the 50s.
Thereafter, we warm back up to near and even above normal by late in
the weekend and early next week with highs into the mid 80s and lows
in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 105 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions through the period. FEW-SCT cu this afternoon
around 5-6 kft. NW winds will be a bit gusty around 15-20 kts
this afternoon and then become light/calm tonight before going
more northerly tomorrow.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP