Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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104 FXUS63 KPAH 162322 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 622 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An isolated shower or storm will be possible over southeast Missouri through late afternoon. - Warm and dry conditions are expected for the rest of the week into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Clouds have broken up over all southeast Missouri this afternoon, which should allow for some decent heating to go with upper 60 dewpoints. This air mass may be just juicy enough to squeeze out a couple of showers or thunderstorms late this afternoon. Shear is weak, so brief heavy downpours and lightning will be the primary concerns. High pressure aloft will build over the region through Tuesday, as surface high pressure brings drier and slightly less hot air to the region. The ridge will get pinched between a cut off low over the Appalachians and southwesterly flow over the Plains over the second half of the week. Eventually, that southwesterly flow will attempt to push eastward this weekend, and try to push some showers into southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. The NBM PoPs (20-30%) begin on Sunday and continue into next Monday, but seem overdone at this time. There certainly aren`t any signs of drought busting rains in the foreseeable future. As for temperatures, it still looks like the coolest air will be Tuesday and Tuesday night and that will still be near, if not slightly above normal. Then, temperatures warm slightly heading into next weekend. Winds will remain light, as the surface high proves difficult to move, so no major increase in humidity is expected. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Main aviation concern tonight will be fog potential at CGI and potentially MVN. Otherwise, winds should subside shortly and remain light tonight. VFR expected on Tuesday. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DRS AVIATION...AD