170
FXUS63 KPAH 171904
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
204 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions with a warming trend in temperatures are
  forecast through the rest of the work week and the first half
  of the weekend.

- Dry relative humidity levels will lead to slightly elevated
  fire weather concerns through Thursday.

- A weak cold front will bring a slight chance of showers Sunday
  into Monday, along with slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Dry and warm conditions will continue today and Wednesday as the
region remains under steady and dry NE flow. This is due to an
elongated area of high pressure stretching across the Southern
Plains into the Midwest and the tropical disturbance off the
Mid-Atlantic coast. The dry air will lead to minimum RH values
of 30-40% over the region this afternoon and again Wednesday
afternoon. For areas that have missed out on the recent rain, a
slightly elevated risk of uncontrolled fire spread will exist.
However, fire weather concerns will be tempered by light surface
winds. High temperatures will be warm by September standards, in
the middle to upper 80s, with overnight lows in the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

For the latter half of the work week into Saturday, H5 heights
will rise as surface ridging expands eastward. This will lead to
a warming trend in temperatures. High temperatures will rise
into the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows falling into
the lower to middle 60s. With surface flow becoming southerly,
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will begin to creep into the
area, resulting in dew point temperatures climbing into the
middle to upper 60s as well.

A change to a slightly cooler and perhaps more unsettled period
is forecast beginning Sunday into early next week. Model
guidance is in rather uncertain in the progression of a surface
cold front into the region during this time. It may get close
enough to kick off some isolated showers Sunday into Monday, but
it does not look to be a washout by any stretch. With additional
cloud cover, temperatures will fall a bit by Monday, with highs
in the lower 80s forecast. Long range ensemble guidance is split
between a more zonal and active pattern and a return of ridging
and warm/dry conditions for next week`s synoptic pattern, so
overall confidence in this part of the forecast is lower than
normal.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Light northeast surface flow will continue through this
afternoon, with winds becoming calm or light and variable
overnight. With increasing low-level moisture, areas of fog
development are likely again at CGI, PAH, and MVN in the predawn
hours Wednesday. Some IFR or LIFR restrictions are possible at
CGI. Fog will quickly mix out after 13z Wednesday, with light NE
flow continuing through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS