850
FXUS63 KPAH 310342
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1042 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions continue into the first half of Friday. Chances
  of rain begin to increase for portions of southeast Missouri
  by Friday afternoon/night.

- A more unsettled pattern returns this weekend into next week
  with daily rain chances along with a warmer and more humid
  airmass.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Updated aviation discussion for 06z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Upper level heights are increasing across the region this
afternoon with high pressure at the surface anchored across the
Great Lakes. Easterly surface flow will remain in place through
early Friday continuing to keep a drier airmass in place.
Further west, an upper level disturbance is progged to slowly
move east and slowly amplify over the weekend. Guidance favors
some PoPs lifting into far SW zones as early as Friday
afternoon. Better height falls, and PVA will favor increasing
showers and storms on Saturday. A surface low will lift
northeast across portions of eastern Missouri and the Ohio
valley increasing low level convergence and advecting richer
theta-e air poleward. Albeit weak lapse rates, increasing
instability will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
There may be enough instability and deep layer shear (~30-40
knots) for a strong storm or two. Coverage is expected to remain
isolated with strong wind gusts and small hail the main
hazards. Additionally, heavy rain and isolated flash flooding is
also possible given antecedent conditions. As the previous
discussion mentioned, a marginal to slight risk was introduced
into the ERO for Saturday.

Next week still looks unsettled with rain chances continuing.
Several upper waves are expected to traverse the area next week
offering chances for showers and storms. Warmer temperatures
will also return by next week. Highs will reach back into the
mid to upper 80`s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

VFR conditions prevail as high cirrus clouds have spread across
the region with light & variable winds. Friday is still looking
like a mainly dry day as model guidance continues to trend
slower with pcpn due to a very dry boundary layer. This will
allow for better mixing with easterly winds around 10-12 kts and
gusts 17-18 kts.

By Friday evening, we will begin to see some saturation in the
column as pcpn becomes possible at KCGI around 03z. There is a
concern for MVFR/IFR cigs, but continue to think model guidance
is being too pessimistic with the low cigs likely holding off
until the end/after the TAF period. Light easterly winds between
6-8 kts are progged.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DW
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...DW