896
FXUS63 KPAH 272338
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
638 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated weak convection possible until sunset across our
  southern service area.

- Mainly dry and seasonable conditions Tuesday through Thursday.

- Late week through next weekend chances for showers and storms
  return to the region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Rest of this afternoon...can`t rule out isolated weak convection
across the southern service area where surface heating has
contributed to a weakening cap with more moderate cumulus
development noted within an axis of better low level moisture
(surface dew points mid 60s to around 70) in closer proximity to a
weak cool front/ wind shift. Any activity and diurnal cumulus should
dissipate with sunset. Attention then shifts upstream where a
shortwave was dropping southward across portions of Minnesota and
northern Iowa. This was producing widely scattered convection as far
south as northern portions of Missouri. As this tracks southeastward
tonight, there is low potential for a stray shower for northern
parts of the service area by mid to late evening. However, the main
forcing looks to pass well to our north, and coupled with the loss
of daytime heating leads to very low confidence for any mentionable
PoPs at this time.

Thereafter, the region looks to remain in cyclonic flow on the
western flank of a broad eastern CONUS trough through mid-week.
This will foster mainly dry conditions and seasonable temperatures.

The models suggest a weak transitory bout of mid level ridging
will build in late week and keep much of the region dry.
However, heading into next weekend the ridge breaks down and will
give way to zonal flow. This will open the region to periodic
shortwaves, and while timing/location is difficult at this range due
to the low amplitude nature of these waves, it does appear we`ll
see increasing chances for showers and storms during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

A few showers and a stray lightning flash or two accompany a
band of VFR height clouds moving into northwestern portions of
the Quad State early evening, with activity diminishing quickly.
Winds will calm for the overnight hours, then become breezy out
of the northwest tomorrow.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...WFO DVN
AVIATION...ATL