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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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232 FXUS63 KPAH 252006 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 306 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid this afternoon with a Heat Advisory in affect for portions of the area that will see heat indices at or above 105. - Isolated storms this afternoon with more scattered activity tonight into Wednesday. Storms will be pulsey in nature but some could be strong to severe, with mainly a wind threat. - Hot and humid again on Saturday with heat indices of 105-110. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Uncertain forecast through the next 12-24 hours. An outflow boundary from previous convection is moving south into portions of southern Illinois and southwest Indiana this afternoon. A few notable updrafts are ongoing as indicated by lightning data and cooler cloud tops. Although some uncertainty exists about how far south, continued development along the outflow is certainly possible this afternoon across the above mentioned areas. The primary threat will be damaging wind. Further west, even more uncertainty exists with a weak upper lvl wave moving across portions of Missouri. The area across SEMO is unstable to say the least, with MLCAPE values between 3000-3500 J/Kg. The lack of a CU field much of the day is evidence of a dry airmass in place beneath a h70 ridge. Modest theta-e advection may be ongoing this afternoon as indicated by a recent increase in CU development. The overall thinking is that development across these areas should remain isolated. A number of CAMS do show development later this afternoon so it will be something to keep an eye on. Shear will remain weak so storm organization will be limited to pulse type storms carrying a damaging wind threat. The heat and humidity will continue this afternoon. Several observations are showing heat indices well into the 105-110 degree range. Obviously heat indices will go down with sunset, but a few lucky folks may see some relief from convective outflow before then. The heat advisory runs through 01Z. The rest of tonight should feature a developing MCS well to the north. Where it goes from there is the big question. CAMs offer varying solutions overnight but most bring something into the region tonight or on Wednesday. If any can maintain any organization and maintenance then they would offer up a damaging wind threat. Overall though confidence remains low on what this would look like. Height falls aloft and a better low to mid layer moisture will ultimately lead to higher PoPs on Wednesday. After Wednesday we see a short window of northwest flow aloft into Thursday. This will also feature lower dewpoints and cooler temperatures with highs in the upper 80`s. The ridge across the southern plains moves back into the region beginning Friday, and continues its grip through the weekend. The result will be increasing temperatures yet again as highs warm back into the 90`s for Friday and Saturday. A front is advertised to move across the region Saturday night into Sunday offering chances of showers and storms and cooler temperatures on Sunday. Looking ahead into next week features hot temperatures again with highs in the lower 90`s by Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Fairly benign weather across the terminals early this afternoon with just some cu developing in the better moisture across MO. Closely watching convection to our north to see how far it will make it into our region. There is a nice outflow boundary heading south from that complex of storms, that continues to trigger new storm development. If any convection reached KMVN or KEVV, it would be later this afternoon. Meanwhile, an upper level disturbance will move in from the west and possibly cause some additional convection to develop near KCGI late this afternoon and into early this evening. The rest of the area could see possible storms through the evening as this feature moves east. Then, another round of storms is likely sometime during the morning hours on Wednesday. Confidence on the timing of all of this convection is low. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078- 080>086-088>090-092>094. MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114. IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for INZ081-085-086. KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>009. && $$ DISCUSSION...AD AVIATION...CW