858
FXUS61 KPBZ 141930
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
330 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather and above average temperatures will continue through
early next week under high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and warm weather under high pressure.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

High pressure remains entrenched across the northeastern CONUS
and southern Ontario. As a result, expect quiet weather to
continue with mostly clear skies and light easterly winds. Low
temperatures tonight will hover around, or remain slightly
above, normal for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and warm weather continues under high pressure.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

High pressure will persist across much of the northeast CONUS
through the short term. Low pressure is also expected to develop
towards the end of the weekend off of the Carolina coast. This
low could eventually become tropical as it makes its way
northwestward towards the eastern seaboard early next week.

Locally, relative humidities dip into the 20-30% range Sunday
afternoon primarily south of Route 422. This, combined with
occasional wind gusts to 15-20 mph, may result in an increased
fire weather threat for portions of northern WV and eastern OH,
though prevailing winds should remain light enough (and fuel
moisture high enough) to preclude the need for any headlines.

Meanwhile, temperature trends remain steady with above-normal
highs expected Sunday afternoon and near to slightly above
normal lows expected Sunday night.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Low rain chances return through mid week
- Cooler, but still above average temperatures
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The main driver in long range projections is the likely
development of a coastal low along the Carolina coastline and
the degree of its westward advancement through the broad upper
ridging over the Great Lakes.

High confidence exists for Monday in maintaining dry and
seasonably warm conditions under the influence of broad high
pressure. Any variations from prior days conditions will be tied
to degree of cirrus coverage if the system lifts northward;
more/thicker coverage would lend to lower highs SE of
Pittsburgh and higher minimum temperature most areas heading
into Tuesday.

Low probability precipitation chances develop Tuesday-Thursday
as the low very slowly moves north. There will likely be a
relative west-to-east lower-to-higher rain probability gradient,
with values directly correlated to the extent of westward
movement. Even in the most favorable of rain scenarios (~90th
percentile outcome), most locations will not see much more than
1" of rain through this 72 hour period. Increased cloud cover
will reduce diurnal temperature fluctuations but maintain near
to above normal high temperature.

Ridge building and dry weather are favored heading into the
following weekend as the coast low slowly drifts NE of the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Easterly winds have remained generally light this afternoon,
aside from a few occasional gusts to 15-20 knots at the expected
terminals (PIT/HLG). Winds will settle overnight tonight and
VFR conditions prevail through the remainder of the TAF period.

River valley steam fog will be possible once again around
sunrise and may result in a brief period of MVFR vsbys at FKL,
though probabilities remain too low to warrant a mention in the
TAF at this time.

.Outlook...
VFR conditions and generally light easterly winds are expected
to prevail through the weekend and into early next week, save
occasional morning fog chances.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cermak
NEAR TERM...Cermak
SHORT TERM...Cermak
LONG TERM...Frazier
AVIATION...Cermak