Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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776 FXUS61 KPBZ 040755 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 355 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Aside from an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm across the higher terrain, dry conditions are expected today. Rain returns Wednesday into Thursday with periodic rain chance thereafter. Temperatures remain above average through much of the week, with a cooling trend expected into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Mainly dry weather continues today. - Afternoon shower or storm possible in the higher elevations. - Temperatures continue to trend up. -------------------------------------------------------------- Ridge will be centered over the region today, and as a shortwave trough drifts over the upper Midwest, minor amplification of the ridge is expected in response. Low-level southeast flow this afternoon could spark an orographically produced shower or storm over the higher elevations of West Virginia. If storms do develop, outflows could push some development further west. Another warm day with high temperatures close to 10 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday into Thursday with a crossing cold front. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Eastern ridge will flatten and be forced eastward as a shortwave trough moves across Ohio late Tuesday night and then across the rest of the forecast area Wednesday morning. The risk for showers and possibly a thunderstorm will increase as the wave crosses the region. Seeing some differences in model solutions on what happens once the wave exits and how fast the next wave will arrive. This will be important for the risk for showers and storms that may develop ahead of a cold front which is slated for a Wednesday night passage. The most focused period of convection looks to be Wednesday evening and overnight. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s will contribute to increased sfc-based instability during the afternoon/early evening. Latest CSU ML continues to support a low-end severe weather (wind) threat, but potential will hinge on timing of convection and arrival of the front. Additionally, Wednesday cloud cover and the threat for activity well ahead of the front will play a role as well. For now, SPC still has us outlooked in a General Thunder only, but we will continue to monitor. A break in the activity is expected Thursday morning before a second cold front crosses in the afternoon. This will return the risk for showers and storms Thursday afternoon/evening. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Periodic showers with cooler conditions are expected into the weekend with a slowly crossing upper-level low. ------------------------------------------------------------------- An upper-level low will dig across the Great Lakes Friday and into New England by Saturday. This will keep cooler and showery conditions in the forecast as we head into the weekend. While there is low confidence on pinpointing the best timing of these showers each day, ensembles do agree on the general showery pattern with upper troughing persisting through the weekend and possibly into early next week. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Shortwave ridging will maintain VFR conditions for most airports through today. The exception is FKL and MGW, where MVFR fog is possible early Tuesday morning with slightly more favorable temperature/dew point spreads. THe latest ensemble guidance has trended lower on probabilities of MVFR visibility for other airports, and this appears reasonable with the recent mixing and lower dew points. After any fog dissipates early this morning, expect scattered cu with cirrus above. .Outlook... Restriction potential returns Wednesday and Wednesday night in showers and possible thunderstorms with a crossing cold front. Periodic restrictions are then possible Thursday through Saturday as a slow moving upper low drifts across the Great Lakes region. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rackley/22 NEAR TERM...22 SHORT TERM...Rackley/22 LONG TERM...Rackley/22 AVIATION...WM