237
FXUS61 KPBZ 031132
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
732 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions can be expected before rain returns Wednesday into
Thursday with periodic rain chance thereafter. Temperatures
remain above average through much of the week, cooling slightly
into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Patchy fog lifts by mid-morning.
- Temperatures 10-13 degrees warmer than observed Sunday.
--------------------------------------------------------------

Update at 730 AM focused on updates to sky cover and
temp/dewpoints. Fog and low stratus will lift into a cumulus
deck later this morning, with slow dissipation this afternoon
under ridging. There is some question as to whether an isolated
shower or storm may pop near the ridges this afternoon, but
mid-level capping may prevent this. Will need to reevaluate
later this morning.

Previous discussion...

Upper ridging building over the region will result in dry
conditions and highs at least 10 degrees warmer than observed
Sunday. Latest guidance has shower/storm probs 10 or less over
the higher terrain so have opted to leave out any mention in
the forecast for today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather continues through Tuesday.
- Temperatures continue to trend up.

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Upper ridging continues to be the dominant feature Tuesday,
maintaining dry conditions and pushing temperatures into the
upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday into Thursday
  with crossing low pressure.
- Periodic showers with cooler conditions are expected into the
  weekend with a slowly crossing upper-level low.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

An unsettled period is expected Wednesday into the weekend as an
upper level low slowly crosses from Manitoba through the Great
Lakes.

The most focused period of convection looks to be Wednesday
afternoon and overnight with a crossing shortwave and sfc
dewpoints in the upper 60s contributing to increased sfc-based
instability during the afternoon/early evening. Latest CSU
machine learning progs support a small probs support a low- end
severe weather (wind) threat.

Brief clearing is expected behind the front, but the upper-
level low will dig across the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday
and into New England by Saturday. This will keep cooler and
showery conditions in the forecast for the second half of the
week. While there is low confidence on pinpointing the best
timing of these showers each day, ensembles do agree on the
general showery pattern persisting into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fog and stratus in place this morning are presenting a variety
of flight conditions from VLIFR to MVFR. As daytime heating
commences, flight conditions are expected to improve to MVFR
areawide by mid-morning, and then to VFR by midday as low-level
restrictions evolve into a rising cumulus deck. These cumulus
will then slowly dissipate by late afternoon under weak surface
ridging. There is a small but non-zero chance of an isolated
shower or storm over the WV terrain.

Another round of fog is possible tonight, but increased mixing
as compared to this morning may prevent widespread formation.
Will evaluate this threat over the day.

.Outlook...
VFR conditions are favored until the next low pressure system
generates widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into
Thursday. Fog, favoring the river valleys, could occur near dawn
prior to that next system.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...CL/88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...Frazier/CL