Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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582 FXUS61 KPBZ 101138 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 738 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Below average temperatures are expected through early Tuesday under an upper-level through pattern. Rising temperatures and dry weather will characterize the mid to late week period. Thunderstorm chances may return Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Cool conditions will persist today under northwest flow. - A few light showers may develop after 2pm. -------------------------------------------------------------- Made some minor updates to sky cover and temperatures at 720 AM, otherwise the forecast is on track. As a shortwave trough digs into the region from the Great Lakes, clouds will increase from north to south through the day. A few stray showers may develop downstream of Lake Erie during the afternoon in northwest flow and modest instability. With 850mb temps only ranging between 5 to 6 degrees Celsius, maximum temperatures will struggle to reach 70F north of I-70. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Clear conditions tonight will drop temperatures into mid-40s with a lingering trough; pockets of fog may develop. - Cool conditions persist into Tuesday. - Ridging early Wednesday morning returns near to above average temperatures across the region. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Dry, quiet, and cool weather is anticipated tonight into early Tuesday morning with a lingering upper-level low and clearing clouds prompting radiational cooling. Probabilities range between 60 to 95% that MinT`s will be less than or equal to 45F. Higher probabilities are noted in eastern Ohio where persist clear conditions are likely. Hi-Res model guidance are also suggesting pockets of fog in eastern Ohio and along the West Virginia ridges. However, the probability of hazardous driving conditions (low visibility) is still considered low. Dry, quiet weather is expected Tuesday into Wednesday under weak ridging. Temperatures will likely be near-average Tuesday as cold air exits east. Wednesday, temperatures will trend above the climatological average with sufficient warm advection from the southwest. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Warm, dry conditions are expected Thursday. - Long range models are hinting that thunderstorm chances return Friday, there is a chance that a few storms could be considered strong to severe. - Models have been consistent that hot conditions are favorable late week into early next week. ------------------------------------------------------------------- With a ridging building to our south and elongated trough over central Canada, zonal flow will advance warm conditions over the Midwest into the region. Confidence is high that upper-80s to near 90s will be observed at observation sites across the region. Minus the heat index values in the low-90s for portions of Ohio, no hazardous weather is expect Thursday. Trough advancement out of the north will return the chance of rain showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening. Several runs of the long range models suggest convection may be organized along the cold front. Probability of organized convection (500J/kg and 30kts of effective shear) is 20% to 40% Friday evening with this noted disturbance. Numerous long range models have been consistent that a ridge axis will build across the CONUS and return warm, moist conditions to the region. Heat impacts will need to be monitored. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At 12Z, MVFR ceilings were mainly confined to areas near the Mason-Dixon Line and north of I-80. As a shortwave trough and weak cold front/surface trough drop across the region today, cloud coverage will increase from north to south. Model ensemble probabilities still favor FKL/DUJ (and perhaps BVI) for continued MVFR ceiling restrictions today, with lesser chance to the south. Will keep VFR ceilings for most other terminals for now. A few isolated showers are possible during the late morning/afternoon hours, but impacts from these will be minor and very brief at best, and have not mentioned for now in TAFs. Wind will pick up out of the northwest with daytime mixing, with occasional gusts to around 15 knots possible. VFR conditions will return areawide this evening as much of the remaining cloud cover dissipates after sunset. With cool temperatures coming in behind the system tonight, there is some question as to whether river valley fog develops. This will depend on how much of a surface pressure gradient, and thus wind, lingers overnight, and the level of dryness of the incoming air mass. These factors will need to be evaluated in upcoming issuances. .Outlook... VFR conditions are expected under building high pressure Tuesday through Thursday. Restrictions in showers and thunderstorms return Thursday night and Friday with another passing disturbance. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hefferan NEAR TERM...Hefferan/CL SHORT TERM...Hefferan LONG TERM...Hefferan AVIATION...CL/MLB