570
FXUS61 KPBZ 021450
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1050 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered light showers continue today with crossing low
pressure. The next chance of widespread precipitation will
arrive by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered showers across the region today. No thunder.
- Cooler temperatures than Saturday.
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Broken lines of light showers continue across the area late this
morning with a weakening shortwave trough. The probability for
thunder remains low given very limited instability and overcast
conditions. The lack of strong forcing and diminishing upper
support will trend towards decreasing coverage through the
afternoon. Rain should end this evening as the shortwave exits
and ridging begins to build. Any lingering overnight showers
will be confined to the higher terrain.

The lack of notable dry advection behind the system will
increase the probability of fog as clouds begin to clear
overnight.

Limited insolation and rain will keep afternoon highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Temperatures will fall into the
60s/upper 50s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather continues through Monday.

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Dry conditions continue Monday with subtle ridging stretching
from the lower Tennessee River Valley to the upper Ohio River
Valley. Temperatures will warm to above normal with increasing
heights.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Shower/storm chances increase for the second half of the work
  week.

- Temperatures will trend down as an upper low settles over the
  eastern CONUS.

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Continued dry conditions Tuesday under the influence of high
pressure will be followed by unsettled conditions the remainder
of the week with a crossing low pressure system and upper trough
settling in over the eastern CONUS. Ensembles suggest this
pattern is maintained through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An area of light rain, in advance of a weakening shortwave
trough, is currently crossing the Upper Ohio Valley. More
scattered showers are anticipated by later this morning and
during the afternoon before the passage of a dying cold front
essentially ends precipitation. Thunder chances are very low due
to a lack of instability.

MVFR ceilings are already in place at ZZV and are expected to
spread slowly eastward into the early afternoon. This remains a
compromise between the quicker LAV statistical guidance and the
slower NBM blended guidance. Once MVFR occurs, ceilings are
likely to wobble between MVFR and VFR into the evening hours.

Depending on boundary layer moisture and clearing of residual
stratocumulus, fog and/or low stratus may develop Monday
morning. However, variability on potential outcomes for that
period remains high.

.Outlook...
Upper riding and surface high pressure will support a return to
VFR conditions by Monday afternoon with a dissipating field of
diurnal cu.

The next low pressure system is favored to arrive Wednesday
afternoon and evening and promote fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rackley/88
NEAR TERM...Rackley/88
SHORT TERM...Rackley/88
LONG TERM...Rackley/88
AVIATION...Frazier