162
FXUS61 KPBZ 260833
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
433 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
and evening with a crossing cold front. Isolated flooding is also
possible with heavy rainfall. Temperatures will trend upwards into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and
  evening.
- SPC has maintained the Slight Risk for severe weather, and WPC
  has continued the Marginal risk for flooding.

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A trough and associated cold front cross the region today, with
a late afternoon/evening FROPA. Some convection during the mid-
afternoon to early evening could be strong to severe if
conditions permit with damaging wind gusts, and hail the
primary threats. SPC has removed the 2% TOR outlook for the day,
but would not completely rule out as several machine learning
outputs still indicate the potential. The severe threat may
evolve into a flooding threat as the day progresses, especially
late evening with ongoing convection. With PWATS well above the
climatological average (1.65" to 1.90") and training showers and
storms under quasi- zonal flow, swaths of 1 to 2 inches are not
out of the question.

The severe weather and flash flood threat will decrease after
midnight as the shortwave tracks east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather returns.
- Temperatures increase Friday into the weekend.

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Dry conditions resume Thursday as high pressure builds in
across the region. A warming trend in temperatures is
forecasted Friday and into the weekend as h500 heights approach
890dm. This combined with increasing low-level moisture will
result in apparent temperatures back up in the mid 90s by the
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Saturday into Sunday
  with the next low pressure system.

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Ensembles show about a 50% chance in general of highs hitting
90F on Saturday. There`s a good chance most locations will see
apparent temperatures back in the 90s with Tds back up in the
upper 60s / low 70s.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return with increased
instability and the approach and passage of another frontal
system Saturday into Sunday.

Dry conditions and near to slightly above normal temperatures
are forecast early next week as high pressure resumes control.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR is expected through the morning ahead of an approaching
shortwave trough and associated surface cold front. Mid and high
level clouds will continue to stream across the area ahead of
the wave. Expect a scattered cumulus layer to develop by late
morning/early afternoon.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by mid afternoon
as the shortwave/cold front approach and cross the region. It
appears the most favorable timing for thunderstorms is between
20Z and 00Z. Included TEMPO groups in the taf sites for the most
favorable timing at any particular airport. Strong wind gusts
and hail are possible in these storms, and additional details
can be added to the tafs as uncertainty decreases later in the
day.

MVFR is expected as the thunderstorms end, with a period of
showers. Eventual IFR is possible overnight with low level
moisture in place.

.Outlook...
Restrictions in stratus/fog are possible through early Thursday.
VFR is then expected through Friday under high pressure.

Restriction and showers/thunderstorm potential returns Friday
night with a crossing warm front. Restrictions are expected at
times Saturday and Saturday night with showers and thunderstorms
ahead of and along a crossing cold front. VFR returns Sunday
under high pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...88
SHORT TERM...88
LONG TERM...88
AVIATION...WM