Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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291 FXUS61 KPBZ 101956 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 356 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Below average temperatures are expected through early Tuesday under an upper-level through pattern. Rising temperatures and dry weather will characterize the mid to late week period. Thunderstorm chances may return Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Cool conditions will persist today under northwest flow. - A few light showers may develop after 2pm. - Clear conditions tonight will drop temperatures into mid-40s with a lingering trough; pockets of fog may develop. -------------------------------------------------------------- As a shortwave trough digs into the region from the Great Lakes, clouds will increase from north to south into evening. A few stray showers may develop downstream of Lake Erie during the afternoon in northwest flow and modest instability. With 850mb temps only ranging between 5 to 6 degrees Celsius, maximum temperatures will struggle to reach 70F north of I-70. To the the south into West Virginia, where some 250 to 400 J/Kg is present, there stands the chance for a weak thunderstorm to pop up into Tucker County or further south. Dry, quiet, and cool weather is anticipated tonight into early Tuesday morning with a lingering upper-level low and clearing clouds prompting radiational cooling. Probabilities range between 30% to 50% that MinT`s will be less than or equal to 45F. Higher probabilities are noted in eastern Ohio where persist clear conditions are likely. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Cool conditions persist into Tuesday. - Ridging early Wednesday morning returns near to above average temperatures across the region. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Dry, quiet weather is expected Tuesday into Wednesday under weak ridging. Temperatures will likely be near-average Tuesday as cold air exits east. Wednesday, temperatures will trend above the climatological average with sufficient warm advection from the southwest. The passing trough well to the north along the the northern Great Lakes significantly helps to lessen the impact of the building ridge keeping temperatures through Wednesday night at normal or just below. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Warm, dry conditions are expected Thursday. - Long range models are hinting that thunderstorm chances return Friday, there is a chance that a few storms could be considered strong to severe. - Models have been consistent that hot conditions are favorable late week into early next week. ------------------------------------------------------------------- With a ridging building to our south and elongated trough over central Canada, zonal flow will advance warm conditions over the Midwest into the region. Confidence is high that upper-80s to near 90s will be observed at observation sites across the region. Minus the heat index values in the low-90s for portions of Ohio, no hazardous weather is expect Thursday. Trough advancement out of the north will return the chance of rain showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening. Several runs of the long range models suggest convection may be organized along the cold front. Probability of organized convection (500J/kg and 30kts of effective shear) is 20% to 40% Friday evening with this noted disturbance. Numerous long range models have been consistent that a ridge axis will build across the CONUS and return warm, moist conditions to the region. Heat impacts will need to be monitored. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A mid-level trough axis and weak front are currently swinging across the Upper Ohio Valley. MVFR ceilings are mainly confined to BVI/FKL/DUJ, downwind of Lake Erie. Expect restrictions to remain in this general vicinity through the remainder of the afternoon, and NBM MVFR probabilities generally align with this thinking, with values 50 percent or greater remaining north of PIT. Non-impactful sprinkles are possible at any TAF site, with any slightly stouter showers confined to near MGW, where some modest instability has built up. Northwest wind at around 10 knots may gust to 15 in spots this afternoon. Expect clouds to scatter out this evening and overnight behind the front as surface high pressure starts to build in. Given the approaching cool air mass, diminishing wind, and relatively warm rivers, some patches of mainly valley-based fog are possible. NBM restriction probabilities favor locations southeast of PIT overnight, as well as to the north as a secondary maximum. Followed this thinking with MVFR mist at FKL/DUJ/LBE and IFR fog at MGW for now; these forecasts will likely need adjustment as cloud trends become more apparent. Any fog should lift by 13Z Tuesday morning, with at least scattered cumulus developing during the late morning/midday hours. Northwest wind will generally remain light at under 10 knots. .Outlook... VFR conditions are expected under building high pressure Tuesday through Thursday. Restrictions in showers and thunderstorms return Thursday night and Friday with another passing disturbance. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger NEAR TERM...Shallenberger SHORT TERM...Hefferan/Shallenberger LONG TERM...Hefferan AVIATION...CL