Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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083 FXUS61 KPHI 271329 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 929 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moving in this morning will stall over the southern half of the area, as moisture from Tropical Cyclone Helene moves in today and tonight. An unsettled pattern will continue for the weekend and into next week as an upper level low meanders off to the southwest. A pattern change potentially comes by the middle of next week as a sweeping cold front approaches. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 9:10AM...Cold front is stalled over the region. Fog continues to mix out across areas; allowed the Dense Fog Advisory to expire at 9AM. Forecast remains largely on track. Previous discussion remains below... Well to our south, Helene continues to be move northward into the Carolina`s as it`s starting to get absorbed into a closed upper level low over the southeast US. This storm is quite expansive, and some moisture from the edge of Helene is anticipated to move in to our area by later today into tonight. The aformentioned cold front will stall out today as it moves southward into Delmarva and it`s here that will be the focus for precipitation and currently where the highest PoPs are for this afternoon/evening (around 60-80%). Then rain should then spread north overnight tonight into portions of eastern PA and adjacent NJ. Generally speaking, rain amounts through tonight should not be too impressive for most areas...mainly a tenth to a quarter of an inch or less. That said, expect it to be a bit heavier at times over Delmarva into southern NJ where some areas could see a half inch to an inch of rain overnight. In terms of temperatures for today and tonight, near and south of the front, high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s, with upper 60s/low 70s north of the front. Overnight lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to low 60s north and west with upper 60s to around 70 south and east. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Some guidance hints at a potential dry slot setting up for Saturday, especially over Delmarva with a warm front expected to set up right around the Philly area. South of the warm front, it looks to be a relatively dry day, with potentially even some peaks of sunshine. North of the warm front, expect clouds with periods of showers and cooler conditions with onshore flow persisting. With the warm front bisecting the region, temperatures will be in the upper 60s/low 70s from Philadelphia on north, and upper 70s/low 80s for South Jersey and Delmarva. Mild overnight lows are expected with lots of clouds around for Saturday night, with 60s expected. For Sunday, the upper level low off to the southwest begins to migrate eastward. This will result in another unsettled day with some scattered showers around with mostly cloudy to overcast conditions with a moist onshore flow. Again, won`t be a washout, and some spots could stay dry, but will not be the nicest Sunday either. Temperatures will only get into the upper 60s/low 70s. Scattered showers linger into the night, with overnight lows in the upper 50s/low to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The upper level low that will linger over the Tennessee Valley looks begin to weaken on Monday and likely will devolve into an open trough. The open trough will gradually move eastward and should move offshore by Tuesday night. Up until then though, periods of unsettled weather are likely, but no day will be a washout. Highest PoPs around 50-60% are concentrated on Tuesday. Once the trough moves offshore, a brief break comes in, with a period of dry weather possible on Tuesday night. However, a cold front looks to come in mid-week, ushering in a pattern change (finally). Guidance has trended weaker and drier with the front, but some showers look possible on Wednesday. Long range guidance indicates that once the front passes, an expansive area of high pressure will try to move in, with a ridge building in eastward, resulting in a period of dry weather, and kicking the onshore flow pattern. It certainly will be feeling like fall with cloudy and cool conditions expected for the first half of next week. Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal for late September/early October, with upper 60s/low 70s for highs. Overnight lows may actually end up a few degrees above normal with limited diurnal ranges continuing with an abundance of cloud cover in place. && .AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...IFR, possibly VLIFR cigs/vsby to start the day with gradual improvement possible to MVFR possible by the afternoon. Showers possible, mainly across the southern tier. Low confidence. Tonight...Cigs expected to go back down to IFR for most sites with periods of rain moving through. ABE could stay mainly MVFR. East winds 5-10 knots backing slightly to ENE overnight. Low confidence. Outlook... Saturday through Sunday Night...IFR/MVFR conditions expected with periods of rain, with low clouds hanging around through the weekend. Some periods of VFR could come from KPHL on south, especially on Saturday afternoon/evening. Monday through Tuesday...sub-VFR conditions likely with 50-60% chance of showers and low clouds hanging around in between periods of rain. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory for our waters south of Cape May was extended until 10 AM this morning due to seas lingering around 5 feet. Southerly winds will generally average 10 to 20 kts. Sub-SCA conditions Friday with easterly winds less than 10 kts in the morning, becoming 10 to 20 kts in the afternoon. Winds and seas increase through Friday night and could be close to Small Craft Advisory levels by Saturday morning. Outlook... Saturday through Saturday Night...SCA conditions possible (40-60%) with seas approaching 5 feet and gusts on the northern waters approaching 25 kt. Sunday through Monday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely (60- 70%) with seas around 5 feet and gusts nearing 25 kt. Rip Currents... For today...East winds around 5-10 mph. Breaking waves heights of 2-3 feet with a 10-11 second period. As a result, have maintained a MODERATE risk of the development of dangerous rip currents for both the Jersey Shore and Delaware Beaches. For Saturday...East winds around 10-20 mph for Monmouth, Ocean, and Atlantic Counties with breaking wave heights of 3-4 feet. Due to onshore flow and higher wave heights, have opted to go with a HIGH risk of rip currents for these areas. For Cape May and Sussex Counties, east-southeast winds around 10-15 mph and breaking waves of 2-3 feet. Due to lesser wind/wave values, opted for a MODERATE risk of rip currents for these areas. Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers and the speed of the currents are generally maximized at low tides. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tides and water levels continue to diminish through today. The Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through this evening for Sussex County, DE as Little Assawoman Bay and the Indian River Inlet have been slow to drain. Minor tidal flooding remains likely through the end of the week within the back bays. The Coastal Flood Advisory for Ocean County has been allowed to expire. Some spotty minor tidal flooding remains possible within Barnegat Bay around the times of high tide, but not expecting tidal flooding to have any significant impacts. Along the Eastern Shore, some spotty minor tidal flooding remains possible through the end of the week around the night- time high tide, though no advisories are expected to be needed. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ003- 004. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ454- 455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich NEAR TERM...Fitzsimmons/Wunderlin SHORT TERM...Hoeflich LONG TERM...Hoeflich AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich/Wunderlin MARINE...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich/Wunderlin TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...