898
FXUS61 KPHI 302028
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
428 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slide through our region through tonight.
High pressure builds in Monday through Tuesday before moving
offshore Wednesday. A surface trough arrives on Thursday as a
cold front may approach from the northwest Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489 remains in effect until 7 pm.

Strong southerly flow into this evening ahead of a cold front will
usher a warm, humid, and unstable airmass into the region. Surface
dew points ahead of the front are well in the 70s, even around 80 in
some spots. Widespread cloud cover has kept temperatures down from
forecasted highs in the low 90s, but the clouds have kept the dew
points elevated. As a result, with some breaks in the clouds, Heat
Advisory criteria may still be met where the Heat Advisory is in
effect. Will keep it going until 7 pm.

Showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the approaching cold
front on a pre-frontal trough. As a result of those elevated dew
points, SB CAPE values generally up around 4000 to 5000 J/kg along
with DCAPE values generally 600 to 800 J/kg, but that should rise a
bit more over the next couple of hours. 0-6 km Bulk Shear in the 35
to 45 kt range and PWATs over 2 inches. Storms are moving fairly
quickly, mitigated the flash flood threat for now. Going into this
evening, localized flash flooding is possible. But the primary
threat is for damaging wind gusts with large hail also possible.
Frequent lightning strikes will also occur in the strongest storms.

Storms currently over the southern Poconos and northern New Jersey.
They will continue to sag to the south as they track east into this
evening, intensifying over the I-95 corridor by 5 pm to 7 pm. Storms
then move into southern New Jersey and Delmarva after 8 pm or so.
Cold front passes through the region after midnight or so and storms
will taper off.

A much drier airmass spreads into the region after midnight as dew
points drop into the 50s by daybreak. Northwest winds will pick up
to around 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph late tonight before
increasing to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph Monday morning.
Winds diminish Monday afternoon.

Much more pleasant weather for Monday with below normal highs in the
upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will remain the dominant feature through Wednesday.
The mostly pleasant and tranquil conditions will continue
Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs on Tuesday will be near normal,
mainly in the low- mid 80s. However, with dew points forecast to
remain in the 50s, another pleasant day looks to be on tap.
Lows Tuesday night will be a touch warmer as well, mainly in the
low-mid 60s.

As the high shifts further east on Wednesday, expect low level
southerly return flow to usher in a modest warming trend, but
conditions should remain quite pleasant.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Summary...Approaching trough and cold front will be responsible
for rain chances through the long term. Few changes from the
previous forecast.

Synoptic Overview...A Canadian upper-level trough will push the
ridge southward some Thursday and Friday. At the surface, a
trough arrives Thursday with a cold front approaching from the
northwest Friday.

Thursday (Independence Day) through Sunday...Southerly flow
becomes more established leading to hot and humid conditions
through the weekend. The influence of a Canadian upper-level
trough will start to approach during Thursday, however the
timing and amplitude of this trough is less certain. As of now,
the main trough is more toward the Midwest and therefore the
associated cold front may be slow to approach our area late in
the week. There may be a pre- frontal trough in our vicinity
Thursday into Friday and this may provide enough focus amid a
destabilizing air mass to initiate some convection.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...CIGs lifting to VFR, but sub-VFR in SHRA/TSRA with
conditions improving from NW (KRDG/KABE) to SE (KMIV/KACY) starting
at 02Z and through 04Z or so. Severe thunderstorms likely, and
should a severe storm pass over a terminal, wind gusts in excess of
50 kt could occur. Heavy rain will also result in VSBYs 1SM or less.
Cannot rule out large hail as well. Non-thunderstorm winds will be
out of the SW at 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, turning NW by
this evening at 5 to 10 kt. Winds increase late tonight to 10 to 15
kt with gusts up to 20 kt after 09Z. Moderate confidence overall.

Monday...VFR. NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt,
diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after 18Z. High confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR with no significant weather.

Thursday and Friday...Sub-VFR conditions possible with chances
(25-35%) for SHRA and TSRA, especially in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
S winds ahead of an approaching cold front will result in 10 to 15
kt winds with gusts up to 20 kt into this evening. Will go ahead and
cancel the Small Craft Advisory as conditions are not quite meeting
SCA criteria. Winds shift to the NW behind the passing cold front
tonight. Winds increase to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt on all
waters late tonight through midday Monday. Will go ahead and hoist a
new SCA from 09Z to 17Z Monday to cover this.

Thunderstorms on the waters will result in wind gusts in excess of
40 kt, VSBY restrictions in heavy rain, and frequent lightning
strikes. Large hail also possible. Storms should begin to taper off
after midnight, though lingering showers and thunderstorms may
continue on DE ocean waters into daybreak Monday.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Friday...Winds and seas are expected to be below
SCA criteria.

Rip Currents...

Monday...Behind a cold front, N winds will average 15 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 25 mph in the morning, then will diminish to 10
to 15 mph in the afternoon. Due to these elevated winds and
breaking waves of 1 to 2 feet, there is a MODERATE risk for the
development of dangerous rip currents for the Jersey Shore. For
Delaware Beaches, winds will back slightly to the NW and will be
a bit lighter. This results in a LOW risk for the development of
dangerous rip currents for Delaware Beaches.

On Tuesday, much more tranquil conditions with E to NE winds 5
to 10 mph. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the development
of dangerous rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware
Beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for PAZ070-071-102-
     104-106.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NJZ010-012-013-
     015-017>020-027.
DE...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001.
MD...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for MDZ012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AKL/Gorse/Johnson
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...AKL/Johnson
LONG TERM...AKL/Gorse/Johnson
AVIATION...Johnson/MPS
MARINE...Johnson/MPS