601
FXUS65 KPIH 200925
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
325 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today and Friday
Early morning satellite imagery shows some mid and high level clouds
streaking across the eastern parts of the forecast area. Should see
a little bit of clearing by late morning and early afternoon
allowing for mostly clear skies before some additional mid/high
level clouds move in later this evening. Temperatures today will
continue their upward trend with widespread 80s expected in the
valleys. Winds will be light with no precipiation expected.

As we move into Friday, temps continue to climb another 3-7 degrees
with valley locations climbing into the mid and upper 80s for
daytime highs. Not out of the question that a few spots in the Magic
Valley or into Shoshone in the 90 degree mark. A weak shortwave will
move through the area during the day Friday and this feature cold
spark a few isolated showers and thunderstorms across the eastern
highlands tomorrow afternoon. McKaughan

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday.
Following an exiting Pacific trough over the Continental Divide
Friday night, a well defined ridge of high pressure will fill in
behind this weekend with the warmest temperatures so far this season
expected. Highs will climb into the 80s to mid/upper 90s as a H5
ridge axis shifts overhead with lows in the 40s/50s/60s. As a result
of these warmer conditions, HeatRisk levels will climb into the
"Moderate" to "Major" categories with an emphasis on seasonably warm
afternoon temperatures running about 10-20 degrees above normal
levels for late June. In addition to warmer temperatures, winds will
also remain elevated each afternoon beginning Sunday courtesy of
increasing 700 mb winds aloft and a tighter PGF over SE Idaho. Wind
gusts up to 30-55 mph will be possible both Sunday and Monday as a
dry cold front passes through SRN Idaho associated with a H5 trough
passing to our north. Wind products may be needed to account for
these strong winds. Temperatures behind this cold front will fall
slightly for next week with highs dropping back into the 80s to low
90s as breezy winds persist each afternoon.

The latest 7-day WPC precipitation forecast keeps conditions very
dry across our CWA through much of next week as predominant, dry SW
flow continues associated with a H5 ridge of high pressure overhead.
Changes may be on the way however late next week as both the GEFS
and EPS ensemble models show a H5 trough moving onshore around that
Thursday/Friday timeframe. At this time, the NBM keeps things mostly
dry with only around a 10-30% chance of afternoon showers/storms in
the forecast starting Thursday. Winds will also pick back up on
Thursday following a "slight" decrease midweek as a mostly dry cold
front progresses east across SRN Idaho. MacKay


&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday.
Predominant VFR and dry conditions will continue into early Friday
with winds around 6-12 kts. Skies will remain partly to mostly
cloudy throughout the TAF period as a Pacific trough passes over the
NRN Rockies. This trough will work to introduce a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms for Friday afternoon with a 10-30% chance
along the Montana and Wyoming border region and less than a 10%
chance elsewhere. A well defined ridge of high pressure will then
build in behind this trough for the weekend as diurnal increases in
wind persist each day, peaking each afternoon. MacKay


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The trend will be for hot and dry conditions Thursday through next
Wednesday.   Only decent chance for any showers or thunderstorms
will be Friday afternoon mainly in zones 411 and 413.  Daily minimum
humidity will be in the 10 to 20 percent range with less than great
overnight recoveries.  Winds expected to be generally light through
Saturday with breezy to windy conditions expected much later Sunday
into next week. McKaughan

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$