721
FXUS65 KPIH 220912
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
312 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today and Sunday
The big weather story through the weekend will be the heat! The
area will reside on the northern edge of a building ridge of high
pressure across the western U.S. Thanks to the strong ridge,
precipitation will be non-existent and we`ll be hard pressed to
find much in the way of clouds either. The heat is the only show
in town and it will be quite warm. Expecting daytime highs to top
out in the 90s today in the Magic Valley and lower Snake Plain
with 80s across the higher terrain. Sunday the heat goes up a few
more degrees with mid 90s more the norm across the lower
elevations. These high temps will be some 15 degrees above normal
for late June so it`ll certainly be quite toasty outside. We`re
close to heat advisory criteria but it still appears just a bit
too marginal especially with decent overnight recovery in many
locations. In addition to the heat, winds will become breezy on
Sunday as the gradient tightens between the ridge to out south.
We`ll likely be close to advisory level winds across the Arco
Desert but elsewhere winds in the 15-20 kt range appear more
probable. McKaughan

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday
Early next week will continue to be support seasonably warm
temperatures and occasional breezy to windy conditions as a broad
H5 trough remains firmly in place overhead over the WRN/CNTRL
CONUS. Elevated winds will be courtesy of a 25-35 kt 700 mb winds
and an enhanced PGF courtesy of a H5 low situated in the NE
Pacific and a H5 ridge axis over the CNTRL CONUS. Winds will peak
around 15-30 mph each afternoon with gusts around 25-45 mph,
strongest of which will be located across the Snake River Plain
with an emphasis on the Arco/Mud Lake Desert where locally
stronger winds will be possible. Highs Monday through Wednesday
will range from the 80s to mid 90s with overnight lows in the
40s/50s/60s. These temperatures are about 10-15 degrees above
normal for late June with no record warmth anticipated.

Changed are on the way later in the week as model guidance remains
in reasonable agreement on that aforementioned H5 trough moves
onshore on Thursday. This trough will support a cold frontal
passage Thursday into Friday which will bring in a cooler airmass
for Friday with seasonably cool highs back in the upper 60s to
upper 70s or about 10-15 degrees cooler over Wednesday. While
isolated showers and thunderstorms will be back in the forecast
for Wednesday through Friday, conditions will remain predominantly
dry as winds remain elevated heading into the weekend, still
peaking around 15-30 mph each day. As this H5 trough exits east
over the Continental Divide on Friday, isolated showers/storms
will give way to warmer and dry weather for the weekend ahead as
temperatures begin to see a warming trend. This will be courtesy
of another H5 ridge building in quickly behind with SW/zonal flow
on Friday transitioning to broad SW flow starting on Saturday and
continuing into early the following week. This will keep
conditions dry as temperatures return to seasonably warm levels.
MacKay

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday.
Predominant VFR and dry conditions will continue through the weekend
under the increasing influence of high pressure ridge overhead. This
will lead to clear skies through Sunday outside of passing mid/upper
level clouds on Saturday. Winds on Saturday will remain in similar
fashion to previous days, ranging from light and variable to 8-15
kts with gusts to around 15-25 kts. Winds on Sunday however will see
an increase to 12-22 kts with gusts to around 25-35 kts. MacKay


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Expecting dry and hot conditions to linger through Wednesday with
high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Minimum humidity
will be 10 to 20 percent through Wednesday as well.  Next chance for
convection will be next Thursday mainly again in the extreme east.
Wind will increase substantially Sunday and will have some breezy to
windy conditions Sunday through next Thursday. Wind speeds will be
15 to 30 mph most likely through that period in the afternoons.
McKaughan

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$