Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
585 FXUS65 KPIH 200948 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 348 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... Dry, mostly sunny/clear, low-to-no-impact weather is forecast to continue into this weekend as several low pressure systems affecting the western US all avoid our area. Winds may be a bit breezy this afternoon especially over the Craters of the Moon region, gusting to 30 MPH. High temperatures each day will hold steady in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Forecast confidence is high. Looks like the next even small chance of showers holds off until Sunday night or Monday. 01 .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY... There is still an expectation for a feature to drop southeast across East Idaho Sunday night into Monday, leading to very light precipitation chances across higher elevations. What happens beyond that differs among the models and clusters. General consensus is that an amplified ridge will form across the western states and shift east, but some solutions want to either wobble the Monday low back across the Great Basin, or develop a blocking pattern across the Great Basin/Four Corners region. This does affect how the ridge behaves moving forward through the week. Blends/ensemble cluster means gradually introduce a more southwest flow late in the week, but still keeping the dry influence of the ridge over East Idaho. This does bring temperatures back up into the 70s for most of the week, which is about seasonal normals for this time of year. DMH && .AVIATION... VFR conditions continue, though there is still a very low probability for pockets of MVFR stratus/fog this morning, particularly for KDIJ. Winds increase this afternoon, generally 10-15kt with gusts 20-25kt for the Snake Plain terminals KIDA/KPIH, but should generally decrease again to around/below 10kts after sunset. VFR conditions expected at all sites overnight. DMH && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions continue with a slight warming trend. A weak system will pass through the region today, bringing an uptick in winds to higher elevations and the Snake Plain. Wind gusts will approach but are not expected to exceed critical thresholds while daytime humidities remain high. The next system arrives for East Idaho Sunday night into Monday. There is a potential for very light shower activity along the Divide and higher elevations along the Wyoming border, but precipitation amounts remain extremely light. A ridge of high pressure redevelops and slides east through the western states through mid week. There is some potential for a Pacific system to push the ridge east by the end of next week, but details remain uncertain at this time. In the meantime, continue to expect a slow warming trend, with temperatures approaching seasonal normals by mid week next week. DMH && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$