Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
313 FXUS65 KPIH 221930 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 130 PM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... Dry, low-impact weather is forecast to continue across southeast Idaho over the next several days, with high pressure largely in control. Overall forecast confidence is high. A shortwave trough will brush across the northern Rockies tonight into Monday morning, but the only local impact from this feature will be an increase in mid- to high-level clouds as precipitation chances will remain to the north of our forecast area. High temperatures today and Monday will hold steady in the upper 60s to lower 70s. 01 .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY... By Tuesday, high pressure is building in over the area once again and this will help warm up our temperatures and keep us dry. For most, highs reach the mid to upper 70s on Tuesday, but the NBM does show a 20 to 30 percent chance for parts of the eastern Magic Valley to reach 80 degrees by Tuesday afternoon. Even if we fall just short of 80 then, more of us will make it there Wednesday afternoon as we transition into southwest flow aloft to warm up about 5 more degrees. The NBM shows a 95 to 100 percent chance of most of the Magic Valley and Snake Plain reaching 80 degrees on Wednesday, so I have high confidence in our current forecast highs of low to mid 80s. After Wednesday, highs will hang out right around the 80 degree mark for those of us in valley locations and 70s elsewhere as we are just barely influenced by weak troughing passing to our north. This will put us into more zonal flow aloft by next weekend, but it doesn`t look like we have much for precipitation chances until the following week. AMM && .AVIATION... With high pressure largely in control, overall forecast confidence is high in VFR conditions with light winds of 10kts or less over the next several days, with really no major impacts for aviation. A shortwave trough brushing across the northern Rockies is expected to result in a period of FEW to SCT high clouds tonight into Monday, but precipitation chances will remain north of our forecast area and away from all southeast Idaho terminals. Our local airmass is also dry enough to preclude any fog concerns. 01 && .FIRE WEATHER... Weak troughing moves through much of Idaho today and we slowly transition into northwest flow aloft late tonight into early Monday morning. This will do little more than bring some increasing cloud cover late tonight and through Monday and a less than 10 percent chance of an isolated shower up near Island Park. Temperatures will hold steady in the low 70s today and tomorrow before our warming trend begins Tuesday. It`s not a particularly strong warm up, but it will get us into the low and mid 80s by Wednesday afternoon. As we warm, relative humidities will drop into the upper teens to mid 20s for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Highs will stay right around 80 degrees for the second half of the week. It doesn`t look very breezy during this time frame, with afternoon gusts topping out at 20 to 25 mph, so we will lack the overlap in low RHs and wind gusts needed to see any critical fire weather conditions this week. And we stay dry all week long, too. AMM && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$