903
FXUS65 KPIH 160804
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
204 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night. Satellite imagery shows
wide band of mid and high cloud across East Idaho today, low
enough to produce some very weak radar returns. It is possible to
see a sprinkle or two at some higher elevations, but overall dry
conditions are anticipated today. Breezy winds develop into the
afternoon once again throughout the Snake Plain, but nowhere near
the strength we saw on Saturday. Northern portions of the Arco
Desert region and across the INL could briefly touch into Wind
Advisory range over 30 mph sustained, but do not feel this is a
wide enough threat for headline issuance today. Next shortwave
feature rotating toward the PaCNW coast early today, and is
anticipated to arrive in East Idaho tonight. Showers spread into
the central mountains around/just after midnight tonight, then
showers and thunderstorms spread across mainly the northern half
of East Idaho through the day Monday. This system brings a more
vigorous cold front, so winds once again expected to be a threat
during the day Monday. If current forecast trends hold, expect a
Wind Advisory for most of the Snake Plain. The biggest impact from
this frontal system will likely be the temperatures, as they
plummet Monday night. Confidence is growing at the potential for
freezing or close to freezing temperatures Monday night. The
entirety of the Snake Plain looks to be in line for at least a
Frost Advisory for widespread temperatures at or below 36 degrees.
Stay tuned... DMH

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday.
The long term period will be marked by a period of transition from
spring-like conditions back towards summer. The remnants of the
deep, cold low pressure system will gradually fill through the week
with high pressure re-asserting itself by the end of the week.
Frost/Freeze issues Tuesday morning should be the last of the near
future as temperatures moderate 8 to 10 degrees across the board
daily from Tuesday through Thursday. By Thursday, temperatures will
be well-above seasonal values with highs in the Snake Plain getting
back into the mid 80s... by Sat/Sun these could be pushing into the
low 90s.

Any lingering moisture could be enough to generate a few additional
light showers Tuesday afternoon, primarily for the Upper Snake Plain
and Eastern Highlands, but significant precipitation is not
expected. This will pretty much be it in terms of precipitation
chances through the balance of the week as high pressure takes
control. Not a lot else going on in the extended timeframe with the
heat and dry in place, but we`ll be monitoring the potential for
wind to increase next weekend for any additional fire weather
concerns.
TAX


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through TAF period under mostly dry
conditions. Mid to upper level cloud deck in place will linger
through the morning hours before pushing east and eroding around
midday. Winds will once again increase today as cooler air moves
into the PacNW, but not expecting strong gusts that we saw Saturday.
The strongest wind gusts will reside over the upper Snake Plain
again, but we`re looking at gusts topping out around 25-30kt. We
should see cigs return later tonight into Monday morning with some
increased precipitation potential. Highest precipitation chances
will be over KIDA/KDIJ, but this will be later Monday afternoon.
TAX

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


&&

.HYDROLOGY...Flood warnings remain in place for the Teton River
and the Snake River. The Teton River currently hovers very close
to the flood stage, and forecasts remain steady in bringing it
down through the day today. The Snake River at Heise remains near,
but just below, flood stage. DMH


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$