827
FXUS65 KPIH 141945
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
145 PM MDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Noticeable changes are ahead for us in eastern Idaho as a major
pattern change is expected to bring wind and cooler temperatures
to the area. Afternoon satellite imagery shows not much of the
way in cloud cover this afternoon but we are starting to see some
scattered CU development across the central mountains.
Temperatures this afternoon are warm, in the 80s across many of
the lower valleys. Not expecting much in the way of precipitation
this evening although a few very isolated thunderstorms up around
the Montana Divide and towards Island Park will be possible.

As we get into Saturday, we really start to see noticeable change
to sensible weather across eastern Idaho. A potent U/L trough
will move into the Pacific NW tomorrow causing the pressure
gradient to tighten significantly over our area, especially across
the Arco Desert where a High Wind Warning has been issued.
Expecting a greater than 50% probability here of seeing gusts in
excess of 60 mph with winds likely sustained in the 35-40 mph
range for a good portion of the day. This looks to be the windiest
area but the Lemhi Highlands, Snake River Plain, Lost River Range
and Big Lost Highlands look quite breezy as well. A wind advisory
was issued for the non-mountainous portions of the areas
mentioned above. Precipitation looks to remain north of our area
but we`ll see a significant increase in cloud cover compared to
previous days as well as much cooler temperatures. Expect highs
around 10-15 degrees cooler than Friday which equates to 70s in
the lower terrain with 50s and 60s in the mountains. McKaughan

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday
Sunday will be breezy, but no where near what is expected
Saturday. Monday and Tuesday still look chilly with rain and
mountain snow in the forecast. If anything, the trend is toward
bringing less precipitation into southern Idaho. There is still a
high likelihood of measurable snow for the central mountains and
along the Montana border, but the chances have dropped slightly
elsewhere...down to 10-40%. The potential for more than 2" sits at
35-70% for the central mountains and 20-40% for places like
Monida Pass and around Island Park. With things trending a bit
farther north, temperatures...at least with this run of the Blend
of Models is a few degrees warmer. On Tuesday, it has mid 50s to
mid 60s for the valleys, and still 30s/40s for the mountains. The
weather remains unsettled as weak low pressure sets up across the
northwestern U.S., although temperatures quickly rebound by the
end of next week. Keyes


&&

.AVIATION...
We should remain VFR over the next 24 hours. We MIGHT
see a shower or storm in the next 24 hours at DIJ, but chances are
too low to even include in the TAF. It looks like a similar
situation at SUN tonight and Saturday, although trends continue to
shift any potential farther north and west. The main concern will be
gusty winds, with even stronger winds tomorrow. Through this
evening, look for 10-20kt sustained winds at all TAF sites with
higher gusts. Starting not too long after sunrise, looks for 20-30kt
sustained winds at PIH, IDA and DIJ...with gusts of 30-45kts
possible. Winds at BYI peaks at 15-20kts sustained with gusts of 25-
35kts, and at SUN...10-20kts with locally higher gusts.  Keyes

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will be pushing through during the late night and
morning hours on Fri night/Sat, increasing the wind strongly, but
bringing afternoon temperatures down for Sat, and driving up
humidity. This front, except for the initial thunderstorms late
tonight, does not seem to be packing much moisture and there is no
threat seen on Sat or Sat night for thunderstorm activity. There
is more cold air to come Sun, Mon, and Tue, when conditions will
be wetter and there is a chance of snow at elevations above 6500ft
in the northern half of eastern Idaho. Messick

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A flood warning remains in effect for the Teton River at Driggs
through Saturday and the Snake River at Heise until further notice.
The latter has seen a slight drop in river levels due to reduced
releases upstream so it`s possible that river levels drop a bit more
over the days ahead. Given the uncertainty though, will continue the
flood warning for now and will consult with local emergency managers
over the days ahead. McKaughan

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for IDZ052.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for IDZ053-054-067-
068.

&&

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