Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
683 FXUS65 KPIH 060741 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 141 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday. Ridge of high pressure will begin to build across the area today. We should see lighter winds for the next few days but also warmer temps. Best chances of seeing 90 or above exists across the lower Snake Plain through the eastern Magic Valley. In these areas, there is a 30 to 50% chance of reaching 90 degrees each afternoon. There is a chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms as well. We`ll see storms arrive late this afternoon with most models showing storms developing in the central mountains moving east into the upper Snake Plain this evening, with another area moving through the southern highlands late this afternoon and this evening. Latest guidance indicates that the better chances for storms on Friday is mainly across the southern highlands. However, previous runs were showing storms developing in the central mountains and drifting into the upper Snake Plain so will continue to mention storms in those areas as well. Most storms are not expected to be severe. However, a stronger storm or two is possible with gusty outflows as the main threat. 13 .LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday. Temperatures have gone up on Saturday as models amplify the ridge a little more over our area. Also, the threat for storms is a little less as well. The upper Snake Plain has a 30% chance of reaching 90 while the lower Snake Plain and eastern Magic Valley now have a 60 to 80% chance on Saturday. On Sunday, a cold front will arrive and bring a better chance for thunderstorms areawide. However, the timing seems a bit slower, now looking later in the day. As a result, temperatures look warmer Sunday than yesterday`s 00z guidance was showing. The upper Snake Plain still has a 30% chance of reaching 90 while the lower Snake Plain have a 50 to 60% chance. Heat risk values during this time reach the moderate/orange "2" category for much of the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. However, currently falling shy of heat advisory criteria which we would need to be approaching Major/Red "3" category. At this time, heat advisories look unlikely. Cooler, drier air is expected behind the front as the pattern turns flatter, more zonal. Temperatures should fall into the upper 70s and lower 80s for Monday and Tuesday in the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. Temperatures rebound slightly for Wednesday and Thursday with mid to upper 80s likely. 13 && .AVIATION...VFR conditions and light winds are likely most of the day at TAF locations. Late afternoon and evening isolated to scattered thunderstorms could impact TAF sites. Gusty erratic winds are possible from these storms. 13 && .FIRE WEATHER...Warmer temperatures are likely through the weekend. This will drive the minimum humidity values down into the upper teens to mid 20s in many areas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening through the weekend. Gusty erratic outflow winds are possible in and near storms. 13 && .HYDROLOGY...The flood warning continues for portions of Teton county as small streams/creeks continue to run high. While levels have dropped just slightly from yesterday, the increased flooding risk still exists as snowmelt from the Tetons will feed into these creeks and streams as temperatures continue to warm over the next several days. The Teton River is also running at an elevated level and is currently forecast to hit action level overnight while nearly reaching minor flood level by Friday afternoon. AMM && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$