Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
756 FXUS65 KPIH 070731 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 131 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday. Warm weather continues today and should persist through the weekend. A ridge of high pressure is bringing us the above normal temperatures. Some moisture will continue to work through the ridge over the weekend. As a result, we should continue to see isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and perhaps once again on Saturday afternoon. The models are going back and forth on whether or not we`re capped enough for storms to pop or not on Saturday afternoon. The ridge is a little more amplified Saturday than today which is the issue. In any case, not looking at a wash out by any means and the main threat would be some gusty outflow winds, perhaps as strong as 50 mph in some cases. Today and Saturday are the best chances to reach 90. There is a 20 to 30 percent chance for the upper Snake Plain and a 50 to 70% chance for the lower Snake Plain and eastern Magic Valley. 13 .LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday. A cold front will arrive Sunday night. Ahead of the front, we`ll see cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms develop Sunday afternoon. This will keep temps down by a couple degrees. The odds of reaching 90 on Sunday slip to 10 to 20% for the upper Snake Plain and 30 to 40% for the lower Snake Plain and eastern Magic Valley. The front has slowed down since the 00z run from Wednesday night. So it looks like there`s a better chance for showers and thunderstorms on Monday across the eastern highlands. Temps cool off into the low to mid 80s now for Monday into Tuesday. Tuesday continues to look dry across the region. But a few models are trying to show isolated thunderstorms returning Wednesday into Thursday with some moisture moving through a zonal flow pattern. Precipitation chances increases for late week as the flow turns southwesterly and a low pressure system sits off the coast of Washington and British Columbia. Temps expected to warm once again later in the week, with upper 80s to near 90 likely in the lower valleys. 13 && .AVIATION...Main concern involves another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms after 21z this afternoon. Storms could impact TAF locations with gusty erratic winds. KSUN is the only site where models agree storms will not affect. Winds outside of storms today should be relatively light with upvalley/downvalley direction changes expected at KSUN and KDIJ. 13 && .FIRE WEATHER...Warm weather will produce minimum humidity values in the upper teens to mid 20s through the weekend. Isolated thunderstorms remains possible through Saturday. A cold front will arrive late Sunday which will produce better chances for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. 13 && .HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING continues for portions of southern Teton County as small streams/creeks continue to run high. Minor flooding continues to be observed, aided by additional snowmelt from the Tetons and Big Holes that feed into these creeks and streams as temperatures continue to warm over the next several days. The Teton River is also running at an elevated level and is currently forecast to hit action level tonight while reaching minor flood level by Sunday into Monday. Several other rivers across the CNTRL Mountains are also seeing diurnal increases with the Big Lost River at Howell Ranch currently hovering around action stage. Along the Snake River, increased flows out of Palisades Reservoir has also led to the Snake River near Heise gage climbing up to action stage and is expected to stay there for at least the next week. MacKay && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$