Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
528 FXZS60 NSTU 260107 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 207 PM SST Tue Jun 25 2024 .DISCUSSION... The latest satellite imageries continues to show the high pressure system to the southeast, pushing the open cell cumuli clouds across the territory throughout the day. At the same time, the high pressure system is also holding a trough to the far north of Swains Island. Also showing on the satellite imageries is a low pressure system to the south, near New Nealand, also migrating east. This low pressure will likely not have any impact to the islands. However, the aformentioned high pressure will likely continue to produce moderate to fresh (15 to 20 mph) easterlies with embedded showers for tonight through at least Saturday. Upper air data from this afternoon show surface winds slightly decreasing to below a moderate breeze. However, model data is showing easterlies remaining in the moderate to fresh breeze for most of the short term forecast period. Model solutions show another high pressure system to the southwest migrating east. This latter high pressure system will push a cold front to the south, closer to the territory by late Monday into Tuesday. Also, as this high pressure migrates east, winds will turn southeast and have the potential to increase to near a strong (25 mph) breeze by the new week. Once the cold front passes, winds will gradually decrease as well. Additionally, cooler than normal temperatures is likely possible for this forecast period. && .Marine... Manual observations for the last couple of hours show seas in a moderately rough state compared to the last couple of days. This is further supported by the latest data from the PacIOOS buoy near Aunu`u and the King buoy near Poloa on the west. Wave heights are in the 9 to 11 feet range with periods around 11 to 15 seconds long for the buoy near Aunu`u. These heights are consistent with the moderate to fresh easterlies, likely enhancing seas and surfs for the east and south facing shores. Wave heights reported from the King buoy are around 6 to 8 feet with periods in around 13 to 15 seconds long. These heights aligns with the easterlies being blocked from the western side of the island, and yielding lower heights. The model data however, show seas subsiding gradually after tonight through the end of the week. Only, the heights will still linger around the small crafts advisory threshold (8 ft and/or 20 knots) for the majority of the forecast period. The advisory for high surfs will remain in effect through at least tonight. The advisory for small crafts will likely remain throughout the rest of the forecast period. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory Small Craft Advisory && $$ JTAllen