Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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294 FXUS65 KPSR 071140 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 440 AM MST Fri Jun 7 2024 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion. && .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure over the Desert Southwest will lead to another day of hot temperatures with highs nearing 110 degrees across most of the lower desert communities. As a weak weather disturbance moves across the region over weekend, a slight cooldown in temperatures can be expected. Another uptick in temperatures is expected heading into next week as high pressure once again builds over the region. && .DISCUSSION... Latest water vapor satellite imagery as well as streamline analysis depicts a strong ridge of high pressure centered over New Mexico along with a weak upper-level low centered just off the Baja Peninsula. The ridge of high pressure will continue to influence our weather pattern today, keeping the hot temperatures in place with highs across most of the lower desert communities ranging between 107-111 degrees, which will continue to result in areas of major HeatRisk. As a result, an Excessive Heat Warning remains in place across the lower deserts through this evening. Southerly flow currently in place will continue to advect some moisture into region along with an increase in mid to upper-level clouds. The moisture will be enough to spark a few mainly dry thunderstorms this afternoon, well north and east of Phoenix towards the White Mountains and the Mogollon Rim with just a 10% chance of activity across eastern Gila County. Heading into this weekend, the aforementioned upper-level low will migrate northward into the region. As it does so, an increase in upper-level cloud cover as well as cooler temperatures are expected. Highs on Saturday will range between 105-110 degrees, cooling even further on Sunday to 103-107 degrees on Sunday across the lower deserts. Even though the HeatRisk will drop into the moderate category, if planning outdoor activities make sure to continue to take all the necessary heat precautions such as drinking plenty of water, wear light-loose fit clothing, and taking frequent breaks in shade. The weather pattern heading into next week will feature a repeat to the weather pattern from the past few days as the model guidance is in good agreement in depicting another cutoff upper-level low pressure system developing off the northern Baja/southern CA coast with the ridge of high pressure strengthening once again over the southwest CONUS. However, the ensembles still continue to show uncertainties in terms of the overall position/strength of the cutoff low, which will dictate the overall positioning of the ridge downstream. Therefore, even though another uptick in temperatures is expected, how hot it will get still remains uncertain given the aforementioned uncertainties to the overall evolution of the cutoff low. However, if a stronger ridge does indeed develop over the area, another round of excessive heat with highs of 110+ degrees, especially across the lower deserts of south- central AZ, will become more likely heading into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1140Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT; and Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Winds will continue to follow typical diurnal tendencies at all terminals, with speeds generally aob 10 kt outside of occasional gusts to around 15-20 kt this afternoon and evening. Gusts to around 25 kts will be possible at KIPL later this afternoon through the evening. SCT-BKN high clouds will continue throughout the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and seasonably dry conditions will continue to support a high fire danger across the area during the next several days. Isolated thunderstorms developing over the White Mountains, Mogollon Rim, and in the far eastern districts later today could lead to an increased risk of lightning-related fire starts, however, the chances of dry thunder across the far eastern districts remains below 10 percent. Another day of excessive heat is forecast across most of the lower deserts with highs near 110 degrees before a gradual cooldown over the weekend. Winds during the next several days will continue to favor diurnal tendencies with sustained speeds remaining below 15 mph along with occasional afternoon breeziness upwards of 20-25 mph. MinRHs through next week will hover at around 10% with poor to fair overnight recoveries of around 20-40%. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ530>556-559>562. CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ561- 563-566-567-569-570. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lojero AVIATION...Smith FIRE WEATHER...Lojero