Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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655 FXUS65 KPUB 250943 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 343 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer temperatures and continued dry conditions are expected for our Wednesday. - Isolated showers and storms possible along the mountains Friday afternoon. - Dry and warm conditions prevail for the end of the week and into next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 340 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Currently.. Water vapor imagery depicts ridging and dry air in place over the region, with no clouds detected over the area on IR. Temperatures are in the 50s over the plains and upper 30s to 40s over mountain valleys as of 3 am. Winds are light and are mostly either westerly or are following normal drainage patterns. Dewpoints are in the 30s. Today and Tonight.. An anomalously strong ridge continues to build eastward and overhead today, bringing temperatures up several degrees warmer than what we saw yesterday, and to readings that are expected to be around 5 to 8 degrees above normal for this of year. This will mean highs climbing well into the 80s across the plains, 70s to lower 80s for mountain valleys, and 60s for higher terrain locations. Mostly sunny sky conditions are expected today, with fairly light (by Colorado standards..) winds. Wind directions are expected to be diurnally driven, with gusts up to 15 mph possible over portions of the plains. Overnight lows tonight are expected to be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday night for most locations, especially along the I-25 corridor. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 340 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Thursday - Tuesday: For the long term period, relatively quiet weather is expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. A ridge of high pressure will sit in place across the region, and with strong agreement between ensemble model guidance, there is high to very high (70-80%) confidence in this pattern evolution. Given the increased subsidence with this pattern, and weak flow and modestly dry air, dry conditions are anticipated to prevail for the area. The exception to this may be on Friday, when a shearing out wave will pass over the region, and may help to blossom isolated showers and storms along the mountains where any forcing will be maximized. Along with all that, a couple of more amplified waves will develop within the flow, though there is strong consensus within ensemble model guidance that these features will remain to the north of the area. Given that, there is high to very high (70-80%) confidence in minimal influence from these waves. Otherwise throughout this period, relatively light winds and pockets of afternoon clouds are expected. Looking at temperatures, the warmth will continue through much of this timeframe, with most remaining above seasonal values for late September. With that said though, there is potential for a cold front to become shoved southward behind one of the aforementioned amplified waves at the start of next week, which would help to cool temperatures back down to around seasonal values. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12 THURSDAY/... Issued at 340 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2024 VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and KALS, for the next 24 hours. Winds will be light and diurnally driven, with gusts remaining less than 15kt at all three sites. Mostly clear skies are likely, and precipitation is not expected through the period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...EHR