285
FXUS65 KPUB 221706
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1106 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms decrease in coverage for today, with
  temperatures remaining near to just above normal for most
  locations this afternoon.

- Rain showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon Sunday
  through Friday, with the greatest coverage of precipitation
  Wednesday through Friday.

- The heat returns Sunday through Friday, with above seasonal
  temperatures expected for much of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 315 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Currently..

An outflow boundary is working its way across our northern plains,
though it hasn`t managed to spark any showers behind it as of it
2am. Satellite and radar imagery depict some lingering showers over
our southern plains, along with the southern Sangres and the souther
San Juans early this morning as well. Temperatures are in the 60s
and low 70s across the plains, with 50s for the San Luis Valley.
Dewpoints are mostly in the 50s. Extensive cloud cover is present
over most of the area, with clearing over Lake and Chaffee counties
this morning.

Today and Tonight..

Our flow aloft transitions from moist and southwesterly this
morning, to more dry and westerly by later this afternoon as a large
area of high pressure to our far southeast begins to expand bringing
us more zonal flow. Models suggest that we will still have enough
lingering moisture and shortwave energy to see another round of
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon over the high country. Storms today are looking much
weaker and less impressive, especially with rainfall totals, than
what we`ve seen for the past few days. Most favorable ares for
convection will once again exist over our San Juans and the San Luis
Valley, but today`s storms risks will mainly consist of outflow wind
gusts to 45 mph and lightning. With forecast CAPE values of around
1000 J/Kg or less and and 20-30kt of deep layer shear in the same
areas, one or two storms may be on the strong side, capable of
producing small hail, as well. Temperatures look to be fairly close
to what we saw yesterday for most locations, with highs climbing
into the upper 80s to mid 90s across our plains, upper 70s to low
80s for mountain valleys, and 50s and 60s for higher terrain
locations. Most convection looks to remain confined to the higher
terrain today, though a few members bring a the potential for a
storm or two out near the I-25 corridor early this evening. Storm
chances die off quickly after sunset tonight, giving way to drying
conditions and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s for our plains and
mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Sunday - Friday: The long term period will start relatively quiet,
with an uptick in active weather for the later half of next week.
For Sunday through Tuesday, a ridge of high pressure will push
westward across the southern US and become stationary over the
Colorado and New Mexico region. Given the increased subsidence with
this feature, dry conditions are expected for most. With that said
though, weak orographic forcing over the higher terrain, in
combination with modest moisture remaining in place, will allow for
isolated to widely scattered rain showers and weak thunderstorms to
blossom over the mountains each afternoon. Any precipitation present
each day is anticipated to dissipate during the evening hours as
diurnal instability wanes. Then for Wednesday through Friday, a
wetter stretch of days is expected. The ridge in place will start to
become more messy as it slightly flattens out and allows for weak
waves to trek over the area. In addition to that, richer moisture
will start to advect around the high pressure to the south and up
over the area. With the uptick in forcing from the waves, and better
moisture streaming over the region, precipitation chances will
become heightened, with rain showers and thunderstorms anticipated
for much of south central and southeastern Colorado each afternoon.
The greatest coverage of precipitation is expected along the
mountains, where forcing will be strongest. Like the previous days
before the later half of the week, precipitation coverage will peak
during the afternoon hours, and then start to lessen in coverage and
intensity during the evening hours. Now looking at temperatures, the
heat starts to return for most areas. Much of the region will
quickly warm back to above seasonal values for late June. With that
said, Wednesday may bring minor relief from the heat, as a cold
front pushes southward during this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024

KCOS and KPUB...
VFR conditions will continue at KCOS and KPUB with some high
cloudiness this morning gradually decreasing this afternoon and
tonight. Some isolated high based showers and thunderstorms will
be possible over and near the mountains with the best chance of
VCSH/VCTS at KCOS. These will produce erratic gusty outflows
which will result in changing wind directions if they pass near
the terminal. Given the isolated nature to showers today, have
tried to time wind shifts at both terminals to represent these
outflows, however timing could change depending on how and where
these isolated storms develop. Convectively driven winds should
decrease after 02z with light diurnally driven winds expected
overnight into Sunday.

KALS...MVFR clouds will gradually dissipate early this afternoon
with VFR conditions expected. Thunderstorms will develop over
the mountains and drift off into the adjacent lower elevations
in the afternoon. Main risk will be gusty erratic winds up to 40
kts near thunderstorms after 22z. Winds could remain erratic
from outflows through 02z but will settle from a northwest wind
in the evening before becoming light and variable overnight
under clearing skies. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...KT