Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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154 FXUS65 KPUB 112008 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 208 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated storms this afternoon will move southeast over the plains. - Temperatures getting hot, rising to 10F above normal over the plains. - Mostly dry for portions of the midweek period, with hot temperatures expected, especially Thursday. - Showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage Friday, with the greatest coverage during the afternoon and evening. - Heat and drier conditions start to return for the weekend and start of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 203 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Currently... Scattered storms were noted over the region this afternoon. popcorn activity was noted over the Palmer Divide region along with scattered storms over the mountains, especially south of US50. Otherwise, skies were mostly clear over the region. SPC meso page was showing some CAPE values around 1500 over the region along with 25 knts of deep shear. Rest of today into tonight... Given the shear and CAPE, we may see one or two strong storms over the region later today. CAMS continue to indicate that the best chance of stronger storms will occur from roughly Canon City and then move southeast towards eastern Las Animas county. Other more isolated storms will be possible over the rest of the region. Given the convective parameters in place, we may see a marginally severe storm or two over the plains later this afternoon into the early evening hours. By mid evening, storms should dissipate as heating decreases. Later tonight, clear skies are expected with min temps in the 50s and L60s plains, 40s valleys and 30s and 40s mtns. Tomorrow... Getting Hot! With warmer air moving in at mid levels, temperatures tomorrow will rise to around 100F over the lower Ark River valleys rom roughly PUB out to the KS border, with upper 90s over most of the rest of the plains (with L90s El Paso county). San Luis Valley should see highs in the mid 80s. These values are running about 10F above normal. As for precip, only isolated high based storms will be possible, with the activity forming over the mtns/plains interface and then moving east and likely dying off. Overall, the big weather story tomorrow is the heat. /Hodanish && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 203 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Wednesday Night - Thursday: For a portion of the midweek period, relatively quiet weather is anticipated for south central and southeastern Colorado. A ridge of high pressure will be in place just to south of the region, with the northern periphery of this feature over the area. Given the increased descent with this feature, dry conditions are expected for much of the area. The exception to this will be isolated light showers and weak thunderstorms over the mountains each afternoon and early evening, though as diurnal instability wanes each evening, any precipitation is expected to dissipate by mid to late evening each period. As for temperatures, the heat continues. Temperatures will be cooling down Wednesday evening after another well above seasonal afternoon Wednesday. Temperatures Thursday though are anticipated to be even hotter for much of the region, with near to possibly record setting daily max temperatures Thursday. The hottest temperatures Thursday will be across the plains, with high confidence (60-79%) in widespread 100+F temperatures. Friday: For the end of the week, an uptick in active weather is expected for the area. A compact short wave is still anticipated to eject across the region to the NE during Friday, and quickly exit through Friday night. This feature will bring an increase in forcing, and bring an uptick in moisture. With the rise in forcing and moisture, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for much of the area, especially along and east of the I- 25 corridor. The greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated late Friday afternoon and early evening, with most precipitation dissipating through Friday evening and night. Along with that, given the increase in moisture and support from the wave, a strong thunderstorm or two is possible during the day, with gusty winds and hail the primary hazards. As for temperatures, some minor relief is in store for much of the area, with temperatures falling, but still remaining above seasonal values. Saturday - Monday: For the weekend and start of next week, relatively quiet weather returns to south central and southeastern Colorado. As the shortwave from Friday exits the area, westerly to southwesterly flow will prevail. While no major forcing is expected with this pattern, orographic forcing will continue. Given this, isolated to widely scattered light showers and weak thunderstorms are expected along the mountains each afternoon, though should quickly dissipate during the evening hours as instability lessens. Looking at temperatures, heat sticks around for most of the region. Above seasonal temperatures will persist for much of the area, with Sunday and Monday being the warmest days of this period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1122 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS. There is a low chance that any of the sites may see a passing convective shower this afternoon/evening along with some gusty outflow winds. Otherwise, wind flow will be diurnally driven. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...HODANISH