227
FXUS65 KPUB 042122
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
322 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather with temperatures some 10 to 15 degrees above
  seasonal levels on Wednesday.

- Isolated thunderstorms return to the area Thursday, then a
  slight increase in thunderstorm coverage expected Friday.

- Trend toward cooler/wetter weather over the weekend into early
  next week on track, with widespread showers/thunderstorms Sat
  into Mon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates
moderate west to northwest flow aloft across the region, with an
embedded wave within the stronger flow translating across the
Northern Tier. Said wave has been spreading mid and high level
moisture across the region through the morning, with the latest GOES
imagery indicating clearing skies across the eastern Great Basin and
into western Colorado at this time. Surface data is also indicating
drier air mixing down across eastern Colorado through the late
morning and early afternoon, with current dew pts in the mid to
upper 30s across the I-25 Corridor and in the 40s across the far
southeast Plains. At 1 pm, LAA was indicating a dew pt of 49F, as
compared to the 66F dew pt at 7am!

Dry conditions remain in the forecast through through the day
tomorrow, with moderating northwest flow aloft as upper level
ridging builds across the Great Basin. Drier air within subsident
flow across the region looks to keep the region dry, with only a few
afternoon clouds expected across the higher terrain. With clearing
skies tonight, should see lows at to slightly below seasonal levels,
in the 50s across the plains, and mainly in the 30s and 40s across
the higher terrain. Warming aloft along with mostly sunny skies on
Wednesday should allow highs to warm to well above seasonal levels
into the 90s across the plains, with 70s and 80s in the high
mountain valleys and mainly 60s and 70s across the higher terrain.
Highs look to remain below record levels for June 5th, of 90F at ALS
in 2010, 94F at COS in 2020 and 101F at PUB in 2020.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Upper level ridge remains in place the next several days over
the western U.S., but with ridge position far enough west to
allow a series of nwly flow weather systems and cold fronts to
bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms to the
region, especially over the weekend into next week. Detail-wise,
weak cold front Wed night/Thu will usher in slightly cooler
maxes to the plains for Thu afternoon, with just enough low
level moisture return for some high based convection across
mainly the eastern mountains by late day. Mid level heights and
temps build back briefly for Friday, leading to hotter daytime
highs and a continuation of mainly isolated afternoon/evening
storms, as t/td spreads remain large. Strong cold front and
upslope surge Friday night/Saturday then set the stage for
widespread convection Saturday, focused across the eastern
mountains and plains. Short-wave dives into the plains for
Sunday, with enough forcing for another round of showers and
storms, though wonder about air mass ending up too cool/stable
if clouds linger into Sunday afternoon. Model timing/strength
differences show up early next week as still more energy dives
over the ridge into the central U.S., though bottom line of most
solutions is for continued rainfall chances Mon/Tue, before
ridge potentially comes back eastward later in the week for a
return to drier/warmer conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next
24 hours. A minor embedded wave within the northwest flow aloft
will keep spreading mid and high level clouds across the Rockies
through the afternoon, with clearing skies expected from west
to east through the late afternoon and evening. Northerly winds
of 10-15kts associated with the passing wave to diminish
through late afternoon and evening, with light diurnal wind
regimes expected through the rest of the taf period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW