Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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098 FXUS65 KPUB 221721 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1121 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A cloudy and cool 1st day of Astronomical Fall with showers over and near the higher terrain. - Crisp overnight lows with potential for frost across the high mountain valleys. - Showers and thunderstorms are expected over and near the higher terrain on Monday and Tuesday, with diminishing chances for precipitation from Wednesday onwards. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 349 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has an upper circulation southeast of Grand Junction, pivoting across south central Colorado at this time, with regional radars indicating associated precipitation lifting out across the southeast mountains and plains. Current observations indicating snow levels hovering around 10,000 feet this morning, with CDOT and other webcams indicating some accumulations on the grass across Monarch and Fremont Passes, as well as the summit of Pikes Peak. Latest models indicate the upper low opening up as it continues to pivot across the plains, leaving a baggy upper trough to translate across the region through the afternoon and into the High Plains by tonight. Movement of this system will keep moisture within modest mid level easterly upslope in place through the late morning, before moisture slowly scours out as mid level flow turns more north to northwest through the afternoon and into the evening. This will keep showers ongoing over and near the higher terrain of the eastern mountains through the morning, with the potential for showers and few thunderstorms over all of the higher terrain this afternoon and into the early evening, as the baggy trough continues to exit the Rockies. Precipitation to remain generally light, with any additional snow accumulations of an inch or two above 10,000 feet. However, will keep current winter weather advisory in in place through the morning for the higher peaks of the Central Mtns and into the Pikes Peak region. With clouds across the region through much of the day, will see little movement in temperatures, with highs mainly in the 50s across the lower elevations, and generally in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain, save for the 20s at the peaks. Perfect timing for the 1st day of Fall with the autumnal equinox occuring at 644 AM MDT! Clouds clear through the late afternoon and evening, with cool over night lows in the 30s and 40s area wide, leading to the potential for some patchy frost, mainly across the high mountain valleys. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 349 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Monday.. After a chilly start, we warm up quickly throughout Monday as shortwave energy embedded in north-northwesterly flow aloft traverses the area. This wave looks to bring ample moisture and instability, enough to spark isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over and near the higher terrain on Monday afternoon. Storms are not expected to be severe on Monday, with main risks being gusty outflow winds and lightning. Daytime highs on Monday will be around 15 degrees warmer than Sunday, but still a few degrees shy of normal for this time of year. This will mean expected highs in low to mid 70s across our plains, with a few upper 70s possible across the Lower Arkansas River Valley, 60s and low 70s for mountain valleys, and 50s for higher terrain locations. Light snow above 11,000 ft will be possible, though accumulations are not expected Monday. High res model guidance continues to show good agreement with a cold frontal boundary pushing through sometime late Monday night and into Tuesday morning. This front will keep rain and weak thunderstorm chances in our forecast through Monday night and into Tuesday morning as well. Tuesday.. Models bring an end to showers and storms over our plains through Tuesday morning, but tend to keep easterly upslope favored wind components in place throughout the day across our plains. This trend suggests that we might have lingering chances for cloud cover, cooler temperatures, and possibly even light precipitation for our eastern mountains and mountain adjacent plains on Tuesday. Showers and storms are expected to redevelop over our southern mountains on Tuesday as well. Daytime highs on Tuesday are looking to be at least a few degrees cooler than Monday, but could end up being several degrees cooler depending on the extent of our upslope. Wednesday Onwards.. Models diverge markedly through the second half of our work week and into the weekend. The GFS develops the ridge over the middle of the country, with high pressure centered over us for a majority of the period. The EC and the Canadian push this weekend`s low down into southern Texas and close it off, where it sits until later this weekend sometime. Ensembles do not show much confidence in precipitation for our region with either solution, though there could be very noticeable differences in expected temperatures. Stayed with the NBM for this package as it seems to be a good middle ground. Overall, near to just above normal temperatures look more likely with the GFS solution, and near to just below normal temperatures appear likely with the EC and Canadian solutions. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1116 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024 At KALS, VFR cigs will slowly lift through the afternoon, then scatter out this evening. Low chance of a vcsh until 00z as well, though any precip will be very light. Given amount of rainfall the past 24 hrs across the San Luis Valley, fog formation along the Rio Grande will be possible, and will carry a period of IFR vis in the taf from 10z-16z. At KPUB and KCOS, MVFR cigs will gradually improve to VFR after 20z-21z, then scatter out this evening after 00z. Low chance of a vcsh as well through 21z, though any precip will be very light. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for COZ058-060- 082. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...PETERSEN