Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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657 FXUS65 KPUB 100946 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 346 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area again today. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be the main concerns. - A warming and drying trend kicks off Tuesday, with near-record heat expected by Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 344 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Today, a weak low just south of our forecast area will move in as an upper-level trough passes by to our north. Near the surface, a blanket of stratus clouds will cover most of the area with lingering moisture from yesterday remaining in place. As such, another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected this afternoon and evening, first across the higher terrain with the impacts moving over the adjacent plains later. Steering flow at the mid-levels still appears largely weak and disorganized, meaning that we will be seeing another day of slow-moving storms with heavy rain potential. Torrential rain and flash flooding will be our main impact concerns today, especially over urban areas, areas that received large amounts of rainfall yesterday, and areas along the Arkansas River that are already running high. We`ll also have to keep a close eye on the burn scars, mainly if storms linger overhead or train over them repeatedly. Models have been somewhat inconsistent on impacts east of the mountains, with some models pushing storms out onto I-25 and beyond while others keep the lower terrain largely dry. Current consensus is for storms to linger over the mountains through the afternoon and into early evening. Some scattered storms will manage to move a bit further east towards I-25, though with the lack of shear today they should be rather short-lived. SPC still has our area outlooked as marginal for severe potential today, with some storms possibly managing to intensify closer to the mountains/plains interface. Torrential rainfall will still be our main concern, but any stronger cells could produce severe hail/wind for short periods of time. Current model consensus has precipitation quickly waning across the area as we move into the overnight hours and into early Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 344 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Tuesday.. A warming and drying trend begins on Tuesday, and looks to persist through the middle of next week, as ridging sets up over the region. Enough lingering moisture looks to be present on to Tuesday to support scattered high-based showers and weak thunderstorms over most of the forecast area. Our higher terrain and mountain adjacent locations should see some decent rainfall out of storms still, but our eastern plains locations could end up seeing more gusty outflow winds than meaningful rain with Tuesday`s storms if we dry out as much as models are currently pointing towards. Temperatures warm back up to several degrees above where we`ll be on Monday, but only two or three degrees above normal for most locations. Highs look to be in the mid to upper 80s across our plains, with upper 70s and low 80s for mountain valleys, and 60s and 70s for higher terrain locations. Wednesday and Thursday.. We continue to get hotter and drier through this period as ridging continues to build over the region. Pops and qpf both decrease in coverage and intensity, and become restricted to the mountains for Wednesday, and mostly non-existent for Thursday. This means that we could see a few stray showers and weak storms over the high country on Wednesday, though they will likely be gusty wind-makers moreso than rain-makers. Precipitation is not likely for most areas on Thursday. Temperature-wise, expect a steady climb to near record heat by Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 90s and a few 100s across the plains on Wednesday, and widespread triple digits for many locations on Thursday. It is still several days out, but all three of our climate sites are forecast to come within a degree or two of our record highs for Thursday. (Colorado Springs record: 95, Pueblo record: 102, Alamosa record: 90) Friday Onwards.. For Friday, models bring a low onshore over California late Thursday, and into the Four Corners region by Friday evening. This system will bring Pacific moisture and southwesterly flow into our region, which should help to spark showers and thunderstorms for at least the Friday and possibly Saturday timeframe as well depending on timing, trajectory, and lingering moisture associated with the system after it passes through. It`s too early to tell exactly how this system will play out, but it seems likely that most areas will see rain and storm chances for at least Friday. Another warming and drying trend looks to follow suit quickly after the departing Friday system. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 344 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Winds this morning will generally be from the south-southeast, picking up slightly as we move into the afternoon. Stratus are also expected to persist over all three terminals. By 20Z or so, scattered showers and thunderstorms will form across the area. KALS will be the site impacted first, with passing storms producing gusty outflow and intermittent heavy rain. MVFR conditions will persist under showers along with lower ceilings. Storms will drift off of the mountains this evening, drifting close to KCOS and KPUB. Forecast confidence is currently too low to include any direct precipitation impacts to these terminals, but lowered ceilings and gusty winds are likely. Precipitation will dissipate across the area close to the end of this forecast period. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 344 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Rapid snow melt continues, leading to elevated flows along the Arkansas River from Leadville to Canon City through tonight, along with smaller creeks and streams close to the mountains. While water levels are generally expected to stay within their banks, fast flows can still be dangerous. Storms this afternoon and evening will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, leading to elevated flooding concerns. Areas most likely to experience localized flash flooding will be the burn scars, low-lying urban areas, and areas that received heavy rainfall yesterday, along with areas near high- flowing streams, creeks, and rivers. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO LONG TERM...EHR AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO HYDROLOGY...GARBEROGLIO