Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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057 FXUS65 KPUB 160458 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1058 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot conditions with isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected on Sunday. - Hot temperatures expected Monday with an increase in fire weather conditions. A couple isolated thunderstorms with gusty winds possible over Baca County Monday evening. - A cold front is expected to pass through on Tuesday bringing moisture and milder temperatures to the region. - Mild temperatures expected Wednesday with a quick turn around with warmer temperatures from Thursday through Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 258 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Relatively quiet this afternoon with latest radar imagery showing isolated showers and thunderstorms developing across the mountains and mountain valleys. As the mid level wave supporting this development continues to propagate overhead this afternoon, will see this development likely continue and even spread into portions of the I-25 corridor, mainly across El Paso County where slightly better focus is located. Conditions have dried out today and will continue this afternoon, with CAPE lowering. This lacking moisture and instability along with shear will limit any strong/severe storms. However, given the dry conditions, gusty outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storm. The far southeast plains remains on the western fringe of the moisture/instability axis and guidance continues to bounce back and forth on whether additional isolated storms develop there. There remains a low chance for this isolated development and if storms do develop think the risk of severe storms will also be low. Conditions continue to dry and warm on Sunday, with hot conditions expected across the region. Under deep west southwest flow, will see 700mb temps soar up to around 20C on Sunday. These temps combined with an abundance of sunshine will support well above normal temps on Sunday. Given this setup and highest temps of 95 to around 105 degrees, have issued a Heat Advisory for the Pikes Peak region and along the mid and lower Arkansas River Valley. Given the drier conditions, shower and thunderstorm chances lower even further on Sunday with only an isolated shower or storm possible across the far southeast plains. Winds do increase on Sunday and combined with the hot and dry conditions, will see critical fire weather conditions develop, where fuels are critical. So, have also issued a Red Flag Warning Sunday afternoon for the San Luis Valley and the far southeast plains. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 258 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Sunday night and Monday... a longwave upper trough is forecast to persist over the western CONUS with an embedded shortwave quickly tracking eastward across the Pacific Northwest. Across the region, southwest flow through the entire layer is expected to strengthen creating downslope winds off the mountains into the Plains. This will aid in rising temperatures across the Plains with highs approaching 100F. Critical fire weather conditions will be present with the hot temperatures, moderate winds, and relative humidity values dropping into the single digits. However, the limiting factor will be the fuels. Where fuels are critical, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued, encompassing the afternoon and evening hours. There will be a lack of moisture over most of the region except for our far eastern Plains near the Kansas boarder, where an isolated thunderstorm or two may develop over Baca County Monday evening and quickly move eastward into Kansas. The primary impact from any storm development will likely be strong winds. The overall confidence of storm development is relatively low (20%). Tuesday... The upper shortwave trough is forecast to move out of the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains and Canada. A cold front is anticipated to move across the forecast region from the north creating some milder temperatures around the upper 80s to lower 90s. The timing of the cold front is expected during the late morning to early afternoon. Fire weather conditions could be possible ahead of the front due to some gusty southwesterly winds; however, the winds will shift to northeasterly by early afternoon bringing moisture and cooler air behind the front. This will suppress any fire weather for the remainder of the period. The increased moisture behind the front will create more favorable conditions for a few showers and thunderstorms along the higher terrain and Palmer Divide due to upslope flow by late afternoon. Wednesday into Saturday... Models agree that the upper longwave trough will remain in the west along with a strong upper high in the east. Modest moisture will remain through the forecast period bringing possible showers and thunderstorms each day and limiting any potential for fire weather. Any storm development is forecast to begin in the eastern mountains and move eastward across the Plains. The chances for precipitation will gradually decrease through the rest of the forecast period. Wednesday is expected to have cooler temperatures with highs being in the mid 70s. Thursday begins a rapid return of warmer temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s expected through Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1057 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024 VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period for KALS, KCOS, and KPUB. By around 18z tomorrow gust southerly and southwesterly winds will develop over all of the forecast points. This will last until the nightime inversion develops shortly after sunset. No precipitation is expected tomorrow. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday for COZ224-233- 237. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for COZ224-232-233. Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Sunday for COZ077-083>086- 089-093-097-098. && $$ SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...SKELLY