Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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451 FXUS65 KPUB 021806 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1206 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorms possible far eastern plains this afternoon through early evening with large hail and damaging winds the primary risks. - Critical fire weather conditions increase for the mountains, though fuels in green up phase should mitigate fire danger risks. - Mostly dry conditions expected for much of the upcoming week, with hot temperatures for much of the region as well. - Rain shower and thunderstorm chances increase for the end of the week and start of the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 419 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Stratus has developed early this morning across portions of eastern El Paso county and the far eastern plains. Have updated grids to reflect this. Already seeing drier air across the mountains spread down into the adjacent I-25 corridor early this morning, especially at K4V1. Dampening shortwave trough out west will move across CO today mixing the low level moisture out across the adjacent plains with time. High res models indicate an early start to convection this afternoon given the earlier timing of forcing with the shortwave. Best chance for severe storms will be along and east of the dry line extending from roughly Pritchett to Eads around 20-21z. East of the dry line HREF members show mean CAPE values up to 1500 J/kg, with ensemble Max Cape up to 2000 J/kg or a little more near the border. Deep layer shears look on the weak side (around 20-30 kts)...so this looks to be primarily a CAPE driven severe threat with initial robust updrafts (if low level moisture holds in) capable of producing hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter and wind gusts around 60 mph. Thunderstorms develop into a line or several broken lines before pushing east into KS between 00z-01z at the latest. West of the dry line, gusty winds, soaring temperatures and low humidity values will increase critical fire weather concerns. However given that fuels are deemed not critical by land management agencies due to green up, no fire weather highlights appear necessary at this point. However this will be the beginning of a warmer and drier period for southern CO. Didn`t stray too far from model blends for high temperatures today. Did cool them down for some of the normal colder valley spots as dry surface dew points and mostly clear skies should allow for another night of good radiational cooling. -KT && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 419 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Monday - Thursday: For much of the upcoming week, relatively quiet weather is expected for south central and southeastern Colorado. Early in the week, westerly flow will prevail, with then northwesterly flow developing by midweek as a ridge of high pressure builds across the four corners region. Given the lack of major forcing with this pattern, dry conditions are anticipated for much of the area. The exception to this will be along the mountains, where weak orographic forcing will help initiate isolated showers each afternoon, particularly for Wednesday and Thursday. This pattern will also bring the heat, with some of the hottest temperatures so far this year expected. Much of the area will warm well above seasonal values for early June, with the hottest temperatures likely midweek. Friday - Saturday: For the end of the week and start of the weekend, an uptick in active weather is anticipated for the area. Northwesterly flow will continue over south central and southeast Colorado as the ridge remains in place to the west. However, higher moisture content will start to return to the region. While major synoptic forcing will still be lacking, the ongoing orographic forcing in combination with the increasing moisture will allow for more scattered rain showers and thunderstorms to develop over the area each day. And while details are still hazy at the moment, some thunderstorms that move across the plains could be strong given the rise in expected instability with the increasing moisture. As for temperatures, a cool down is anticipated with the wetter pattern, with temperatures falling back to around and slightly above seasonal values. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1201 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Gusty west to southwesterly winds are expected for KALS, KPUB, and KCOS throughout this afternoon and evening. Wind gusts will reach up to around 25 kts. There will be a lull in winds between 1700-2000, but by around 2000 an outflow boundary should create gusty north-northwesterly winds for a couple of hours. When those winds settle, around 2300, winds will be come light and diurnal. No precipitation is expected at this time for today - so overall VFR conditions are expected. Lighter winds are expected tomorrow with no precipitation in the forecast. VFR conditions are expected tomorrow. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KT LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...SKELLY